The Economic Calendar: CPI, NFP and Trading Forex News

An economic calendar lists upcoming data releases and central bank events, with the time, the forecast (consensus), the previous value and an importance rating. Currencies react to the surprise: the gap between the actual number and the forecast, especially in releases that change expectations for interest rates, such as US inflation (CPI) and the US jobs report (non-farm payrolls, NFP). For beginners the most important lesson is defensive: know when big news is due, because that is when spreads widen and stops slip.

Reading a calendar entry

Time (PKT)	Currency	Event	Impact	Forecast	Previous	Actual
17:30	USD	CPI m/m	High	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%

• Impact: how much the release usually moves prices. Treat "high" events as risk events.
• Forecast or consensus: the median of economists' forecasts. This is what the market has largely priced.
• Previous: last period's figure, sometimes revised when the new figure comes out.
• Actual: filled in at release time.

Free calendars are available on many financial news and broker websites. Set the time zone to Pakistan time or your own so the times are correct, and check that it handles daylight saving.

The releases that move forex most

Central bank decisions are the biggest events of all (see Interest Rates and Central Banks). After them, the data that shape rate expectations:

• Inflation (CPI): the consumer price index measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services. Markets watch headline and "core" (excluding food and energy). Higher than expected inflation suggests higher rates, which usually supports the currency.
• Jobs: the US Employment Situation report, usually published on the first Friday of the month, includes non-farm payrolls (jobs added), the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Other countries publish their own labour data.
• GDP: total economic output, usually quarterly. Important but often anticipated by earlier data.
• PMIs: monthly surveys of purchasing managers. Above 50 suggests expansion, below 50 contraction. They come out early, so they can surprise.
• Retail sales, wage data and trade balances.

Release times in Pakistan

Most major US data, including CPI and the jobs report, is released at 08:30 New York time. US Federal Reserve decisions are announced at 14:00 New York time, followed by a press conference.

US event	New York time	PKT in US summer (March to early November)	PKT in US winter
CPI, NFP, retail sales	08:30	17:30	18:30
FOMC decision	14:00	23:00	00:00 (next day)

Bank of England decisions come at 12:00 UK time (16:00 PKT in the British summer, 17:00 PKT in winter) and ECB decisions at 14:15 Frankfurt time (17:15 or 18:15 PKT). Release times and dates can change, for example when a US government shutdown delays official statistics, as happened in late 2025. Always check the calendar for the week ahead.

How surprises move prices

The reaction depends on more than the headline:

• Size of the surprise: a 0.1% miss may barely register; a 0.3% miss can move a pair 50 to 100 pips.
• The details: strong payrolls with falling wages may be read as weaker than the headline. Large revisions to previous months can matter as much as the new figure.
• What the central bank cares about now: when inflation is the worry, CPI dominates; when growth is the worry, jobs data does.
• Positioning: if most traders are already long the dollar, good news can produce only a small rise, and a small disappointment a big fall.

Initial moves are often partly reversed within minutes or hours as larger players digest the report. Chasing the first spike is one of the most expensive habits in retail trading.

What happens to execution during news

In the seconds before and after a major release:

• Liquidity providers pull their prices, so spreads widen, sometimes to many times normal.
• Prices jump between levels, so stops fill at the next available price (slippage).
• Pending orders on both sides can be triggered by a whipsaw.
• Some brokers restrict new orders or raise margin requirements for a few minutes.

Four ways to handle news

1. Stand aside: close or avoid new trades 15 to 30 minutes before high-impact releases for the currencies you trade. The simplest and, for beginners, often the best choice.
2. Reduce size: keep the position, but small enough that a gap would not do serious damage.
3. Trade after the dust settles: wait 15 to 60 minutes, let spreads normalise, then trade the trend that the data created, if your plan calls for it.
4. Hold longer-term positions through it: position traders with wide stops often ignore individual releases but still check that the position size is right.

News and backtests

Daily-close strategies feel news through overnight moves, while intraday strategies feel it directly through spreads and slippage. When you test a strategy, use wider costs around news hours or exclude them consistently. More on this in How to Backtest a Forex Strategy.

Next: how to see whether a move is about the dollar or the other currency, in The US Dollar Index and Currency Strength.