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Stocks · world's top 100 in New York · best of 6 strategies · since 2006
Six well-known stock strategies, tested on the 100 largest companies in the world that trade in New York, from Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft to TSMC, ASML and Toyota. The rules and the way to pick a winner were written down before the test. The best one is Golden cross: below are its signals for the next open, every trade it holds now with its stop, and a live track record. Charts for every stock are on the market page, headlines on stock news. Verdict: best of six, 4 of 5 checks.
BEST OF SIX: GOLDEN CROSS · 4 of 5 checks · 1,269 trades · 2006-2026 · after costs
No strategy passed all five checks. Golden cross passed 4 of 5, the most, and had the best risk-adjusted portfolio among those, so by the rule written before the test it is the one shown live. Per trade it made +17.6% on average (47% winners, profit factor 4.25), in both 2006-2015 (+14.3%) and 2016-2026 (+20.4%). A 10-slot portfolio turned $10,000 into $191,010 (+15.3% a year, worst fall -37%), against $87,947 for the S&P 500 and $356,104 for an equal-weight basket of the same stocks.
Last New York close 2026-10-23 · 99 of 100 stocks scanned · S&P 500 (SPY) 759.97 is above its 200-day average (724.00). In the test, trades started with SPY below it averaged +19.0% against +17.3% above.
> ai_market_view · The S&P 500 trades at 759.97, safely above its 200-day average of 724.00, confirming the broader market uptrend remains intact.
golden cross · daily · bought 2026-10-1910-slot
Procter & Gamble is newly bought and performing normally; hold.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
golden cross · daily · bought 2026-09-1610-slot
Salesforce is near its buy price and 14.0% above its stop; hold.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
golden cross · daily · bought 2026-09-1010-slot
Palantir is up 17.3% and 27.7% above its stop; trend intact, hold.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
golden cross · daily · bought 2026-04-2410-slot
Arm is down 5.4% but remains 10.3% above its stop; the rule holds.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
golden cross · daily · bought 2026-03-2710-slot
Dell maintains a large profit cushion and is 67.6% above its stop; hold.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
golden cross · daily · bought 2025-11-0610-slot
Eli Lilly is trading strongly above its 50-day and 200-day averages; hold.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
golden cross · daily · bought 2025-07-1710-slot
AMD is up 218.7% and sits 73.4% above its stop despite sector volatility; hold.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
golden cross · daily · bought 2025-06-0410-slot
Royal Bank of Canada is well above its 200-day average and stop level; hold.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
golden cross · daily · bought 2025-05-1210-slot
Amphenol remains 52.7% above its stop with a healthy buffer; hold.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
golden cross · daily · bought 2025-02-0610-slot
Santander is 63.5% above its stop with the trend intact; hold.
AI opinion after the 2026-10-23 close. It is untested and never changes the rules: the levels and the track record follow the rules.
Near a signal: LIN (+1.8% away)
| Stock | Bought | Buy | Last close | Gain | Stop | Room | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG Procter & Gamble10-slot | 2026-10-19 | 157.87 | 161.02 | +1.8% | 134.19 | +16.7% | 4 |
| META Meta Platforms (Facebook) | 2026-10-07 | 738.29 | 642.62 | -13.1% | 627.55 | +2.3% | 12 |
| T AT&T | 2026-09-29 | 24.444 | 20.930 | -14.5% | 20.777 | +0.7% | 18 |
| DIS Walt Disney | 2026-09-28 | 105.12 | 112.52 | +6.8% | 89.352 | +20.6% | 19 |
| SAP SAP | 2026-09-18 | 212.58 | 238.14 | +11.8% | 180.69 | +24.1% | 25 |
| CRM Salesforce10-slot | 2026-09-16 | 251.41 | 248.57 | -1.3% | 213.70 | +14.0% | 27 |
| ABT Abbott Laboratories | 2026-09-11 | 103.51 | 103.70 | 0.0% | 87.986 | +15.2% | 30 |
| DHR Danaher | 2026-09-11 | 201.63 | 230.50 | +14.1% | 171.39 | +25.6% | 30 |
| PLTR Palantir10-slot | 2026-09-10 | 167.35 | 196.75 | +17.3% | 142.25 | +27.7% | 31 |
| SHOP Shopify | 2026-09-01 | 143.66 | 168.68 | +17.2% | 122.12 | +27.6% | 37 |
| MSFT Microsoft | 2026-08-31 | 510.38 | 524.51 | +2.6% | 433.82 | +17.3% | 38 |
| PFE Pfizer | 2026-08-28 | 28.000 | 30.030 | +7.0% | 23.800 | +20.7% | 39 |
| GILD Gilead Sciences | 2026-08-25 | 145.78 | 156.04 | +6.8% | 123.91 | +20.6% | 42 |
| TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | 2026-08-19 | 594.65 | 673.82 | +13.1% | 505.46 | +25.0% | 46 |
| MA Mastercard | 2026-08-14 | 567.09 | 623.60 | +9.7% | 482.03 | +22.7% | 49 |
| BLK BlackRock | 2026-08-13 | 1,160 | 1,118 | -3.8% | 985.85 | +11.8% | 50 |
| WFC Wells Fargo | 2026-08-07 | 86.460 | 82.390 | -4.9% | 73.491 | +10.8% | 54 |
| BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | 2026-07-30 | 505.98 | 542.19 | +6.9% | 430.08 | +20.7% | 60 |
| RTX RTX | 2026-07-24 | 210.13 | 191.01 | -9.3% | 178.61 | +6.5% | 64 |
| V Visa | 2026-07-09 | 344.66 | 407.92 | +18.1% | 292.96 | +28.2% | 75 |
| ABBV AbbVie | 2026-07-08 | 249.93 | 285.64 | +14.1% | 212.44 | +25.6% | 76 |
| JPM JPMorgan Chase | 2026-06-08 | 310.30 | 331.58 | +6.6% | 263.75 | +20.5% | 96 |
| BAC Bank of America | 2026-06-08 | 53.447 | 50.560 | -5.6% | 45.430 | +10.1% | 96 |
| PANW Palo Alto Networks | 2026-05-29 | 256.32 | 380.55 | +48.2% | 217.87 | +42.7% | 102 |
| CRWD CrowdStrike | 2026-05-27 | 160.25 | 257.57 | +60.4% | 136.21 | +47.1% | 104 |
| UNH UnitedHealth | 2026-05-15 | 389.66 | 418.09 | +7.1% | 331.21 | +20.8% | 111 |
| ARM Arm Holdings10-slot | 2026-04-24 | 221.96 | 210.33 | -5.4% | 188.67 | +10.3% | 126 |
| DELL Dell10-slot | 2026-03-27 | 174.06 | 456.44 | +161.7% | 147.95 | +67.6% | 145 |
| DE Deere & Company (John Deere) | 2026-01-30 | 520.80 | 646.15 | +23.8% | 442.68 | +31.5% | 184 |
| BUD Anheuser-Busch Inbev | 2026-01-28 | 69.074 | 84.260 | +21.7% | 58.713 | +30.3% | 186 |
| COP ConocoPhillips | 2026-01-09 | 97.002 | 150.80 | +55.2% | 82.451 | +45.3% | 198 |
| KO Coca-Cola | 2025-12-08 | 68.509 | 92.710 | +35.1% | 58.233 | +37.2% | 220 |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 2025-11-28 | 226.16 | 292.87 | +29.2% | 192.24 | +34.4% | 226 |
| AMGN Amgen | 2025-11-07 | 307.55 | 439.26 | +42.5% | 261.42 | +40.5% | 240 |
| LLY Eli Lilly10-slot | 2025-11-06 | 922.18 | 1,273 | +37.8% | 783.86 | +38.4% | 241 |
| MRK Merck | 2025-10-22 | 85.179 | 145.27 | +70.2% | 72.402 | +50.2% | 252 |
| AAPL Apple | 2025-09-16 | 236.31 | 347.73 | +46.9% | 200.86 | +42.2% | 278 |
| INTC Intel | 2025-08-18 | 24.000 | 86.960 | +261.6% | 20.400 | +76.5% | 298 |
| XOM Exxon Mobil | 2025-08-12 | 102.39 | 183.21 | +78.6% | 87.033 | +52.5% | 302 |
| CVX Chevron | 2025-08-12 | 146.62 | 233.21 | +58.7% | 124.62 | +46.6% | 302 |
| PBR Petrobras | 2025-08-11 | 11.412 | 26.160 | +128.8% | 9.700 | +62.9% | 303 |
| BHP BHP Group | 2025-07-30 | 49.907 | 77.850 | +55.7% | 42.421 | +45.5% | 311 |
| GOOG Alphabet (Google) | 2025-07-25 | 192.26 | 317.28 | +64.7% | 163.42 | +48.5% | 314 |
| ANET Arista Networks | 2025-07-23 | 111.13 | 172.37 | +54.8% | 94.460 | +45.2% | 316 |
| SCCO Southern Copper | 2025-07-22 | 91.474 | 185.01 | +101.9% | 77.753 | +58.0% | 317 |
| AMD AMD10-slot | 2025-07-17 | 161.81 | 516.79 | +218.7% | 137.54 | +73.4% | 320 |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | 2025-07-10 | 151.55 | 263.81 | +73.7% | 128.82 | +51.2% | 325 |
| ADI Analog Devices | 2025-07-02 | 236.56 | 391.07 | +65.0% | 201.08 | +48.6% | 330 |
| TTE TotalEnergies | 2025-07-01 | 58.209 | 92.780 | +59.1% | 49.478 | +46.7% | 331 |
| NVDA NVIDIA | 2025-06-30 | 158.01 | 210.96 | +33.2% | 134.31 | +36.3% | 332 |
| TSM TSMC | 2025-06-26 | 221.92 | 418.51 | +88.2% | 188.64 | +54.9% | 334 |
| ASML ASML | 2025-06-26 | 792.52 | 1,572 | +97.9% | 673.64 | +57.1% | 334 |
| LRCX Lam Research | 2025-06-17 | 92.498 | 230.10 | +148.3% | 78.623 | +65.8% | 340 |
| MS Morgan Stanley | 2025-06-13 | 126.43 | 179.49 | +41.7% | 107.46 | +40.1% | 342 |
| GS Goldman Sachs | 2025-06-11 | 602.05 | 875.68 | +45.2% | 511.74 | +41.6% | 344 |
| KLAC KLA | 2025-06-09 | 80.490 | 145.61 | +80.5% | 68.416 | +53.0% | 346 |
| RY Royal Bank Of Canada10-slot | 2025-06-04 | 125.09 | 201.17 | +60.5% | 106.33 | +47.1% | 349 |
| APH Amphenol10-slot | 2025-05-12 | 41.271 | 74.090 | +79.2% | 35.080 | +52.7% | 365 |
| TD Toronto Dominion Bank | 2025-03-03 | 57.367 | 124.61 | +116.8% | 48.762 | +60.9% | 414 |
| SAN Santander10-slot | 2025-02-06 | 5.517 | 12.840 | +132.3% | 4.689 | +63.5% | 430 |
Every trade the rules hold at the last close, newest first, after a 0.1% cost each side. 10-slot = one of the 10 stocks a 10-slot portfolio that followed every signal since 2006 would hold now (the busiest stock first when slots are short).
Since the launch close 2026-10-16: 1 signal recorded, 1 open, 0 sold. Results appear when the first trade is sold; in the backtest a golden cross trade lasted 199.6 sessions on average.
| Signal close | Stock | Buy (next open) | First stop | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | PG Procter & Gamble | 157.87 | 134.19 | open | +1.8% |
| Strategy | Trades | Avg trade | Profit factor | $10,000 became | Worst fall | Sharpe | Checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden crosslive | 1,269 | +17.6% | 4.25 | $191,010 | -37% | 0.89 | 4/5 |
| Monthly momentum 12-1 | 530 | +14.0% | 3.97 | $663,647 | -48% | 0.88 | 4/5 |
| All-time-high breakout | 674 | +15.8% | 3.93 | $130,961 | -31% | 0.85 | 4/5 |
| Trend Breakout | 11,627 | +0.9% | 1.41 | $79,265 | -47% | 0.70 | 4/5 |
| RSI(2) pullback | 14,290 | +0.2% | 1.20 | $27,134 | -40% | 0.41 | 3/5 |
| 52-week high on volume | 1,333 | +1.1% | 1.45 | $30,675 | -20% | 0.55 | 2/5 |
| S&P 500 (SPY, dividends included) | — | — | — | $87,947 | -55% | 0.64 | — |
| Equal-weight basket of the 99 stocks | — | — | — | $356,104 | -47% | 0.95 | — |
Portfolio = 10 slots, each new trade gets a tenth of the money when a slot is free, cash earns nothing. Try your own amount, start year and risk in the investment calculator. Sharpe = return per unit of daily swings (higher is smoother). Every strategy in detail →
| Year | Trades | Avg trade | Portfolio | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 part | 61 | +14.2% | +15% | +14% |
| 2007 | 29 | -5.1% | +12% | +5% |
| 2008 | 44 | -14.2% | -27% | -37% |
| 2009 | 91 | +26.9% | +41% | +26% |
| 2010 | 68 | +6.2% | +12% | +15% |
| 2011 | 54 | +15.0% | +11% | +2% |
| 2012 | 82 | +26.5% | +24% | +16% |
| 2013 | 51 | +30.1% | +35% | +32% |
| 2014 | 47 | +7.3% | +17% | +13% |
| 2015 | 63 | +10.0% | +18% | +1% |
| 2016 | 81 | +38.1% | +24% | +12% |
| 2017 | 53 | +14.3% | +35% | +22% |
| 2018 | 44 | +7.1% | -6% | -5% |
| 2019 | 103 | +15.5% | +26% | +31% |
| 2020 | 83 | +33.0% | +8% | +18% |
| 2021 | 33 | +12.1% | +36% | +29% |
| 2022 | 78 | +12.7% | -25% | -18% |
| 2023 | 85 | +46.1% | +8% | +26% |
| 2024 | 55 | +7.3% | +24% | +25% |
| 2025 | 49 | -4.0% | +29% | +18% |
| 2026 part | 15 | -10.5% | +35% | +13% |
Buy: The 50-day average closes above the 200-day average after being at or below it the session before. The buy is at the next session's open, so every signal can be acted on after the close. Sell: Sold at the next open after the 50-day average closes below the 200-day; intraday stop 15% under the buy; 500 sessions at the latest. One trade per stock at a time, prices adjusted for splits and dividends, and a 0.1% cost on each side. Source: Classic moving-average crossover (Brock, Lakonishok & LeBaron 1992 tested the family).
Six strategies were tested with fixed, published rules: trend breakouts, all-time and 52-week highs, the golden cross, short RSI(2) pullbacks and monthly momentum. Each had to pass five checks: enough trades, a profit in both 2006-2015 and 2016-2026, a profit in most years, and a portfolio at least as smooth as owning the same stocks equally. The winner is the one that passes the most checks, then the highest Sharpe ratio. No strategy passed all five checks. Golden cross passed 4 of 5, the most, and had the best risk-adjusted portfolio among those, so by the rule written before the test it is the one shown live. The runner-up was Monthly momentum 12-1 (Sharpe 0.88 against 0.89). Monthly momentum 12-1 made the most money (×66.4) but with a deeper worst fall (-48%), so it ranked lower on risk.
Golden cross trades are few and long: 1,269 trades on 99 stocks in 2006 to 2026, 47% of them winners, held 199.6 sessions on average (median -1.3% per trade). Many small losses (299 trades ended at the stop) are paid for by a few large winners (the best made +939%, TSLA from 2019-11-06). It does not avoid bear markets: the portfolio lost -27% in 2008 (S&P 500 -37%) and -25% in 2022 (-18%). Its worst fall from a peak was -37%, against -55% for the index.
The stock list is today's 100 biggest companies. In 2006 nobody knew that Nvidia or Tesla would get there, and companies that shrank out of the top 100 are missing. That flatters every strategy here, and it flatters simply buying all of them even more: an equal-weight basket of the same stocks made ×35.6, more than golden cross (×19.1). Expect less from any of these rules on stocks that are not yet winners. Read the signals as research, size every trade so its stop costs no more than you planned, and see the disclaimer. Crypto signals live on the signals board; Pakistan stocks on our sister site danioPSX.
Of the six tested on the world's 100 largest companies that trade in New York, Golden cross came out best by the rule fixed before the test (most checks passed, then the highest Sharpe ratio of a 10-slot portfolio). It made +17.6% per trade on average after costs with a profit factor of 4.25, and $10,000 following it became $191,010 from 2006, against $87,947 in the S&P 500. It still failed one check: 10-slot portfolio: sharpe since 2016 at least the equal-weight basket's.
A golden cross is the day a stock's 50-day average price closes above its 200-day average, after being below it. It marks a medium-term trend turning up. The opposite, the 50-day closing back below the 200-day, is a death cross. Here a golden cross is bought at the next open and held until the death cross, with a 15% stop under the buy price and a limit of 500 sessions (about two years).
The 100 largest companies in the world by market value whose shares trade on the NYSE or Nasdaq, foreign companies' ADRs included: 79 American companies and 21 from abroad, such as TSMC, ASML, HSBC, Shell, Novartis, Royal Bank Of Canada. Companies that trade only at home (Saudi Aramco, Samsung, Tencent and others) are left out, because their prices, hours and access differ.
It beat the S&P 500 (×19.1 against ×8.79, worst fall -37% against -55%), but not an equal-weight basket of the same 99 stocks (×35.6). That basket is the fair comparison: the list is today's biggest companies, picked with hindsight, so buying all of them in 2006 looks better than anyone could have done. The strategy carries the same bias.
Once per trading day, after the New York close (16:00 ET, about 01:00-02:00 PKT). A new signal is a buy at the next open; a sell is at the next open too. Each signal and open trade has a card with its levels, the stop in force, the live price during the New York session (from Yahoo Finance, refreshed every minute) and an AI review written after the close. The AI review is an opinion only: it is not tested and never changes the rules or the track record. Prices are in US dollars and include dividends.
