Method
- Rules fixed first: every rule comes from published research and was written down, with the checks below and the pick rule, before its first run. Nothing was tuned after seeing results.
- Data: Yahoo Finance daily bars from 2005-01-03 to 2026-10-20. Yahoo's daily forex close is the price at the start of the London day, so each day's close here is the next bar's open; one-bar bad ticks are removed. Round 2 adds central bank policy rates (BIS) for the swap, real exchange rates (BIS) for value; round 3 adds each currency's home stock index (S&P 500, DAX, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, All Ordinaries, NZX 50, S&P/TSX, SMI) for the month-end hedge rule; round 4 adds consumer prices (BIS) and 10-year government bond yields (OECD, the German Bund for the euro) for the inflation, real-rate and yield-curve rules.
- Costs: 0.03% a side for spread and slippage on every entry and exit, and from round 2 on the swap: the policy-rate gap earned or paid every day, minus a 0.5% a year broker markup. A second run with double costs is kept for each rule.
- Checks (all five to pass; the first four to count as profitable): Enough trades (and, for monthly rules, at least 200 rebalances); 2005-2015: made money with a profit factor of at least 1.2; 2016-today: made money with a profit factor of at least 1.2; Made money in at least 65% of the years; Sharpe ratio since 2016 at least the benchmark's. Benchmark: us dollar index (dxy) bought and held, with its carry.
- What was deleted: every rule that failed any of the first four checks, which was all of them. Their signals, live boards and trade lists are gone from the site; this page keeps their results so nobody is shown only survivors.
What this means for you: none of these rules is worth following on currency pairs as tested. The forex pages keep prices and charts (forex market), and the same method runs the live crypto and stock signals. Starting $10,000 in the benchmark in 2005 would have become $14,284.