What is the Smart Trend setup?

Trend Breakout with a filter. A coin from today's top 100 by market cap is bought when its daily close beats every close of the previous 20 days; the stop sits at the middle of that 20-day range, is raised after every daily close and never lowered, and the trade is sold at the first daily close below it. Smart Trend skips the breakout when btc below its 200-day sma, or when 50-day sma down > 5.93% in 10 days. Those two patterns were the strongest shared trait of Trend Breakout's losing trades.

How were the losing patterns found?

Every Trend Breakout trade on the same 100 coins since October 2019 (3,297 trades) was tagged with 22 facts known on the breakout day: momentum, volume, volatility, distance from highs, BTC's trend, how many coins broke out, coin age, liquidity and the coin's previous trade. A search then looked for the skip rule that lifts the average of the remaining trades the most, and accepted it only if it helped in both halves of the data. It kept two rules.

Is Smart Trend better than Trend Breakout?

Per trade, yes, in this backtest: +1.18R against +0.89R on the same coins, 39% of trades won against 34%, profit factor 2.99 against 2.42. But the rules were picked on these years, so that comparison flatters it. The fairer test is walk-forward: picking the rules each year only from the years before and trading the next year, the filtered version beat the unfiltered one in 4 of 5 years (2022-2026), +0.96R against +0.66R per trade. A first, stricter search failed outright, and the page shows that too.

Why does Smart Trend sometimes give no signals for months?

Because of the BTC rule. While BTC closes below its 200-day moving average, Smart Trend takes no trade at all. In the backtest it sat out the whole of 2022 and the first half of 2026, which is where most of its edge over the unfiltered breakout comes from. When BTC is above the line it trades like Trend Breakout, minus breakouts in coins whose 50-day average is falling fast.

Is there any leverage?

No. Smart Trend is a spot, long-only setup: buy the coin, hold it, sell it. The backtest uses no margin, no futures and no borrowing, and each live signal is sized so a full stop costs 1% of the capital: position = 1% of capital / stop distance. With the median stop 9.59% below the entry that is about 10% of the capital per trade, never more than 100%. Using leverage would add liquidation risk and funding costs that were not tested.

Why do most trades still lose?

It is still trend following: 39% of trades won after fees and the median trade lost +0.49R. The profit comes from a few long trends (21% of trades reached +5R, 10% reached +10R). The longest losing run was 78 trades counting every trade in entry order (26 with the live caps).

Smart Trend Strategy: Filtered Crypto Breakout Backtest

The rules, exactly as tested

Binance spot daily candles (UTC), closed candles only. Coins: today's top 100 by market cap that trade against USDT on Binance (stablecoins, gold tokens and wrapped copies left out). Long only, one trade per coin at a time.

Breakout. The daily close is higher than the highest close of the previous 20 days. Entry = that close.
Skip rule 1. No trade when BTC closes below its 200-day SMA: alt breakouts in a BTC downtrend fail more often.
Skip rule 2. No trade when the coin's 50-day SMA fell more than 5.93% in 10 days: a bounce inside a falling trend.
Stop. The midpoint of the highest and lowest close of the last 20 days. After every later daily close it moves up to the new midpoint if that is higher; it never moves down.
Exit. The first daily close below the stop in force before that close. No take-profit, no time stop; +2R, +5R, +10R are milestones on the signal card, not exits.
A skipped breakout leaves the coin free. If tomorrow's close is a new breakout and passes the rules, it is a trade.
Costs. 0.1% spot fee on each side and 0.02% slippage on the entry and the exit.
No leverage. Spot only; each signal is sized so the stop costs 1% of the capital (position = 1% / stop distance, at most 100%).

What the filter does and does not do

Most of the gain comes from the BTC rule: it keeps Smart Trend out of bear markets (all of 2022, the first half of 2026), where breakouts failed one after another. In good years it sometimes does a little worse than the unfiltered breakout, because it skips a few early breakouts that turned into big trends. With the live caps it ended the 7 years with less in total than the unfiltered breakout (+400R against +574R): it trades less often, so it is a better trade and a smaller drawdown (53R against 60R), not a bigger total. It does not make losers rare: about 6 trades in 10 still lose, and the profit still comes from a few long trends. Compare it with Trend Breakout and every other setup on all backtests.

By year (every trade): 2019 +0.13R, 2020 +1.64R, 2021 +1.53R, 2023 +0.95R, 2024 +1.80R, 2025 +0.20R, 2026 +1.19R per trade; the unfiltered breakout on its own 72-coin list is on the Trend Breakout page (+0.92R per trade since 2019).

Use it responsibly

These signals are automated and educational, not financial advice. The filter was chosen by looking at past trades, so expect the live result to be weaker than the backtest. Most trades lose, losing runs of 20 or more happen and stops are often 10% below the entry. The coins are today's top 100, so coins that died are missing, which flatters a long-only backtest. Read the disclaimer.

Year	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
2019	17	29%	+0.13R	+0.16R	1.27	+2.3R	4R	5
2020	211	48%	+1.64R	+1.67R	4.32	+345.3R	18R	12
2021	331	42%	+1.53R	+1.55R	3.48	+505.2R	71R	26
2022	0	no trades
2023selected	428	44%	+0.95R	+0.99R	2.80	+408.5R	119R	27
2024	512	34%	+1.80R	+1.83R	3.72	+920.5R	201R	79
2025	432	31%	+0.20R	+0.22R	1.29	+84.9R	87R	36
2026 (to date)	204	48%	+1.19R	+1.22R	3.86	+242.7R	32R	22
Full periodOct 2019 – Oct 2026	2,135	39%	+1.18R	+1.20R	2.99	+2509.4R	202R	78

Coin	Rank	State	Close	Trigger	To trigger	vs midpoint	Levels / reason
KMNO	172	BUY	0.0421	0.0421	—	+9.7%	2026-10-24 close 0.0421 · stop 0.0384 · +2R 0.0496 · +5R 0.0607 (risk 8.8%, size 11.4% at 1% risk, not published: too late or price already moved)
JST	72	NEAR	0.1411	0.1428	1.2%	+2.8%	midpoint 0.1372
PEPE	61	NEAR	0.000005	0.000005	1.3%	+8.0%	midpoint 0.000004
TRX	8	NEAR	0.3301	0.3361	1.8%	-0.5%	midpoint 0.3318

Coin	Rank	State	Close	Trigger	To trigger	vs midpoint	Levels / reason
COMP	173	UPPER HALF	24.060	25.920	7.7%	+1.9%	midpoint 23.620
CVX	196	UPPER HALF	2.427	2.621	8.0%	+7.6%	midpoint 2.257
S	180	UPPER HALF	0.0510	0.0609	19.4%	+2.6%	midpoint 0.0497
BAT

Stop distance	Trades	Win	Avg net R
< 5%	65	32%	+0.45R
5–8%	150	43%	+1.26R
8–12%	141	45%	+0.87R
12–16%	42	45%	+0.97R
16–25%	23	65%	+0.97R
≥ 25%	7	43%	+0.71R

Days held	Trades	Win	Avg net R
< 3d	16	0%	-1.36R
3–7d	99	0%	-1.15R
7–14d	96	10%	-0.67R
14–30d	171	77%	+1.44R
30–60d	43	100%	+6.56R
≥ 60d	3	100%	+26.92R

Smart Trend: the 20-Day Breakout Without Its Losing Patterns

> strend_backtest_2023

The rules, exactly as tested

What the filter does and does not do

Use it responsibly

Frequently asked questions

2023 · every trade

2023 · live caps

Full period (all years)

> results_by_year · after costs

> equity_curve · 2023 · cumulative R of the trades entered that year

> daily_scan · top 100 coins · 1 buy · 0 filtered · 3 near · 4 upper half · 92 lower half · updated 2026-10-24 20:05 UTC

> active_signals · fresh BUYs after an AI review · the bot closes them at a daily close below the trailing stop

> strend_performance · 5 signals

> strend_active · 4

KMNO/USDT LONG

COMP/USDT LONG

CVX/USDT LONG

PEPE/USDT LONG

> strend_history · 1

> smart_trend_vs_unfiltered · same 99 coins · 2019-10-16 → today · after costs

> breakdown · 2023

By stop distance

By time in the trade

> money_calculator · what would my USDT have become in 2023?

> strend_backtest_history · 7 trades · 2023 · APT · one target at 5R · newest first

> what_winners_and_losers_had_in_common · 3,297 unfiltered trades

> walk_forward · rules picked only from earlier years

Month	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
2023-01	58	86%	+1.74R	+1.76R	27.46	+100.9R	1R	1
2023-02	36	6%	-0.53R	-0.50R	0.39	-19.1R	23R	25
2023-03	24	33%	-0.15R	-0.13R	0.75	-3.7R	10R	8
2023-04	42	14%	-0.81R	-0.77R

Coin	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
AAVE	10	30%	-0.59R	-0.56R	0.30	-5.9R	7R	4
LDO	10	20%	+0.01R	+0.03R	1.02	+0.1R	7R	8
XTZ	10	20%	-0.28R	-0.24R	0.64	-2.8R	7R

Trades taken	Setup	Trades	Won	Avg R	PF	Total R	Worst DD
Every trade	Unfiltered breakout	3,297	34%	+0.89R	2.42	+2944R	203R
	Smart Trend	2,135	39%	+1.18R	2.99	+2509R	242R
Live caps (≤ 3/day, ≤ 6 open)	Unfiltered breakout	729	32%	+0.79R	2.16	+574R	60R
	Smart Trend	454	35%	+0.88R	2.36	+400R	53R

Feature (at the breakout close)	Big winners	Winners	Losers	All
Stop distance (%)	7.72	8.87	8.80	8.84
Breakout size (%)	2.15	2.53	2.41	2.45
Volume vs 20-day avg (x)	1.67	1.74	1.62	1.65
Breakout-day return (%)	5.28	6.16	6.22	6.21
Close location in the day's range	0.82	0.83	0.81	0.81
30-day return (%)	5.27	7.37	4.56	5.47
90-day return (%)	3.28	0.68	-4.05	-2.75
Distance from the 365-day high (%)	-47.24	-53.18	-54.90	-54.37
Gap to the 200-day SMA (%)	0.80	-4.97	-6.52	-6.02
50-day SMA slope, 10 days (%)	-0.80	-1.08	-1.93	-1.65
ATR(14) (%)	5.14	5.93	6.08	6.05
RSI(14)	60.46	60.64	59.68	59.99
30-day return vs BTC (%)	-5.78	-3.23	-0.48	-1.43
Days since listing	979.50	1,011.00	1,045.00	1,036.00
30-day avg volume (log10 USD)	6.96	7.07	7.12	7.11
BTC above its 200-day SMA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
BTC 20-day return (%)	8.50	7.17	5.95	6.60
BTC above its 20-day midpoint	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
Coins above their 20-day midpoint (%)	82.83	87.50	82.47	84.15
Coins breaking out the same day	15.00	16.00	14.00	15.00
Previous trade on the coin (R)	-0.65	-0.63	-0.57	-0.59
Days since the previous trade ended	26.00	23.00	25.00	25.00

Year traded	Rules picked from the years before	Unfiltered	Filtered
2022	Gap to the 200-day SMA (%) < 29	-0.40R (350)	+0.25R (39)
2023	Days since listing > 752 · Stop distance (%) < 7.16	+1.31R (500)	+1.27R (105)
2024	30-day avg volume (log10 USD) > 7.37 · Days since the previous trade ended < 9	+1.67R (589)	+2.51R (299)
2025	30-day avg volume (log10 USD) > 7.41 · Days since the previous trade ended < 9	+0.17R (530)	+0.45R (303)
2026	30-day avg volume (log10 USD) > 7.4 · 30-day return (%) > 23.5	+0.25R (682)	+0.33R (509)

Take profit	Target reached	Won	Avg net R	Total R	PF
As tested	—	43%	+0.11R	+1R	1.17
One target at 0.5R	86%	86%	+0.28R	+2R	3.23
One target at 1R	71%	71%	+0.32R	+2R	1.86
One target at 1.5R	71%	71%	+0.68R	+5R	2.81
One target at 2R	43%	43%	+0.21R	+1R	1.33
One target at 2.5R	43%	43%	+0.42R	+3R	1.66
One target at 3R	29%	43%	+0.24R	+2R	1.38
One target at 4R	14%	43%	+0.16R	+1R	1.26
One target at 5R	14%	43%	+0.31R	+2R	1.48
One target at 10R	0%	43%	+0.11R	+1R	1.17

Entry (UTC)	Coin	Entry	Stop	Target 5R	RRR	Breakout %	Exit	Net R	Net %	As tested
2023-12-23 00:00	APT LONG	9.259	8.281	14.150	5.00	1.62	Trailing stop, loss 01-04 00:00	-0.23R	-2.41%	-0.23R
2023-12-05 00:00	APT LONG	7.771	7.272	10.264	5.00	1.1	Trailing stop, profit 12-19 00:00	+0.18R	+1.18%	+0.18R
2023-10-23 00:00	APT LONG	6.158	5.498	9.461	5.00	11.04	Trailing stop, profit 11-15 00:00	+1.44R	+15.48%	+1.44R
2023-07-18 00:00	APT LONG	7.816	7.369	10.049	5.00	1.82	Trailing stop, loss 07-25 00:00	-1.75R	-10.00%	-1.75R
2023-07-05 00:00	APT LONG	7.676	6.950	11.303	5.00	0.15	Trailing stop, loss 07-09 00:00	-0.88R	-8.29%	-0.88R
2023-04-14 00:00	APT LONG	12.369	11.697	15.726	5.00	1.34	Trailing stop, loss 04-20 00:00	-1.62R	-8.79%	-1.62R
2023-01-14 00:00	APT LONG	6.812	5.010	15.817	5.00	5.46	Target 5R 01-26 00:00	+4.99R	+131.99%	+3.62R

Smart Trend: the 20-Day Breakout Without Its Losing Patterns

> strend_backtest_2023

The rules, exactly as tested

What the filter does and does not do

Use it responsibly

Frequently asked questions

Related guides

2023 · every trade

2023 · live caps

Full period (all years)

> results_by_year · after costs

> equity_curve · 2023 · cumulative R of the trades entered that year

> daily_scan · top 100 coins · 1 buy · 0 filtered · 3 near · 4 upper half · 92 lower half · updated 2026-10-24 20:05 UTC

> active_signals · fresh BUYs after an AI review · the bot closes them at a daily close below the trailing stop

> strend_performance · 5 signals

> strend_active · 4

> strend_history · 1

> smart_trend_vs_unfiltered · same 99 coins · 2019-10-16 → today · after costs

> breakdown · 2023

By stop distance

By time in the trade

> money_calculator · what would my USDT have become in 2023?

> strend_backtest_history · 7 trades · 2023 · APT · one target at 5R · newest first

> what_winners_and_losers_had_in_common · 3,297 unfiltered trades

> walk_forward · rules picked only from earlier years