What is the Smart Trend setup?

Trend Breakout with a filter. A coin from today's top 100 by market cap is bought when its daily close beats every close of the previous 20 days; the stop sits at the middle of that 20-day range, is raised after every daily close and never lowered, and the trade is sold at the first daily close below it. Smart Trend skips the breakout when btc below its 200-day sma, or when 50-day sma down > 5.93% in 10 days. Those two patterns were the strongest shared trait of Trend Breakout's losing trades.

How were the losing patterns found?

Every Trend Breakout trade on the same 100 coins since October 2019 (3,297 trades) was tagged with 22 facts known on the breakout day: momentum, volume, volatility, distance from highs, BTC's trend, how many coins broke out, coin age, liquidity and the coin's previous trade. A search then looked for the skip rule that lifts the average of the remaining trades the most, and accepted it only if it helped in both halves of the data. It kept two rules.

Is Smart Trend better than Trend Breakout?

Per trade, yes, in this backtest: +1.18R against +0.89R on the same coins, 39% of trades won against 34%, profit factor 2.99 against 2.42. But the rules were picked on these years, so that comparison flatters it. The fairer test is walk-forward: picking the rules each year only from the years before and trading the next year, the filtered version beat the unfiltered one in 4 of 5 years (2022-2026), +0.96R against +0.66R per trade. A first, stricter search failed outright, and the page shows that too.

Why does Smart Trend sometimes give no signals for months?

Because of the BTC rule. While BTC closes below its 200-day moving average, Smart Trend takes no trade at all. In the backtest it sat out the whole of 2022 and the first half of 2026, which is where most of its edge over the unfiltered breakout comes from. When BTC is above the line it trades like Trend Breakout, minus breakouts in coins whose 50-day average is falling fast.

Is there any leverage?

No. Smart Trend is a spot, long-only setup: buy the coin, hold it, sell it. The backtest uses no margin, no futures and no borrowing, and each live signal is sized so a full stop costs 1% of the capital: position = 1% of capital / stop distance. With the median stop 9.59% below the entry that is about 10% of the capital per trade, never more than 100%. Using leverage would add liquidation risk and funding costs that were not tested.

Why do most trades still lose?

It is still trend following: 39% of trades won after fees and the median trade lost +0.49R. The profit comes from a few long trends (21% of trades reached +5R, 10% reached +10R). The longest losing run was 78 trades counting every trade in entry order (26 with the live caps).

Smart Trend Strategy: Filtered Crypto Breakout Backtest

STREND backtest results per calendar year
Year	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
2019	17	29%	+0.13R	+0.16R	1.27	+2.3R	4R	5
2020	211	48%	+1.64R	+1.67R	4.32	+345.3R	18R	12
2021	331	42%	+1.53R	+1.55R	3.48	+505.2R	71R	26
2023	428	44%	+0.95R

Coin	Rank	State	Close	Trigger	To trigger	vs midpoint	Levels / reason
KMNO	172	NEAR	0.0416	0.0421	1.3%	+8.3%	midpoint 0.0384
JST	72	NEAR	0.1410	0.1428	1.3%	+2.7%	midpoint 0.1372
TRX	8	NEAR	0.3293	0.3361

Variant	Before test n	Before test avg R	Before test PF	Held-back n	Held-back avg R	Held-back PF
Smart Trend (both rules, as live) (spec)	559	+1.53R	3.70	1576	+1.05R	2.76
Trend Breakout, no filter (same 100 coins)	996	+1.05R	2.65	2301	+0.83R	2.32
Only: skip when BTC below its 200-day SMA	599	+1.40R	3.39	1692	+0.98R	2.59
Only: skip when 50-day SMA down > 5.93% in 10 days	875	+1.02R	2.62

The rules, exactly as tested

Binance spot daily candles (UTC), closed candles only. Coins: today's top 100 by market cap that trade against USDT on Binance (stablecoins, gold tokens and wrapped copies left out). Long only, one trade per coin at a time.

Breakout. The daily close is higher than the highest close of the previous 20 days. Entry = that close.
Skip rule 1. No trade when BTC closes below its 200-day SMA: alt breakouts in a BTC downtrend fail more often.
Skip rule 2. No trade when the coin's 50-day SMA fell more than 5.93% in 10 days: a bounce inside a falling trend.
Stop. The midpoint of the highest and lowest close of the last 20 days. After every later daily close it moves up to the new midpoint if that is higher; it never moves down.
Exit. The first daily close below the stop in force before that close. No take-profit, no time stop; +2R, +5R, +10R are milestones on the signal card, not exits.
A skipped breakout leaves the coin free. If tomorrow's close is a new breakout and passes the rules, it is a trade.
Costs. 0.1% spot fee on each side and 0.02% slippage on the entry and the exit.
No leverage. Spot only; each signal is sized so the stop costs 1% of the capital (position = 1% / stop distance, at most 100%).

What the filter does and does not do

Most of the gain comes from the BTC rule: it keeps Smart Trend out of bear markets (all of 2022, the first half of 2026), where breakouts failed one after another. In good years it sometimes does a little worse than the unfiltered breakout, because it skips a few early breakouts that turned into big trends. With the live caps it ended the 7 years with less in total than the unfiltered breakout (+400R against +574R): it trades less often, so it is a better trade and a smaller drawdown (53R against 60R), not a bigger total. It does not make losers rare: about 6 trades in 10 still lose, and the profit still comes from a few long trends. Compare it with Trend Breakout and every other setup on all backtests.

By year (every trade): 2019 +0.13R, 2020 +1.64R, 2021 +1.53R, 2023 +0.95R, 2024 +1.80R, 2025 +0.20R, 2026 +1.19R per trade; the unfiltered breakout on its own 72-coin list is on the Trend Breakout page (+0.92R per trade since 2019).

Use it responsibly

These signals are automated and educational, not financial advice. The filter was chosen by looking at past trades, so expect the live result to be weaker than the backtest. Most trades lose, losing runs of 20 or more happen and stops are often 10% below the entry. The coins are today's top 100, so coins that died are missing, which flatters a long-only backtest. Read the disclaimer.

Coin	Rank	State	Close	Trigger	To trigger	vs midpoint	Levels / reason
COMP	173	UPPER HALF	23.840	25.920	8.7%	+0.9%	midpoint 23.620
BAT	148	UPPER HALF	0.1584	0.2159	36.3%	+0.1%	midpoint 0.1583
SUN	138	LOWER HALF	0.0164	0.0172	5.2%	-2.5%	midpoint 0.0168
NEXO	88	LOWER HALF	0.8080	0.8530	5.6%	-2.5%	midpoint 0.8285
BTC	1	LOWER HALF	80,888	85,767	6.0%	-2.9%	midpoint 83,328
BNB	4	LOWER HALF	740.00	786.43	6.3%	-1.6%	midpoint 752.22
WLFI	55	LOWER HALF	0.0531	0.0573	7.9%	-3.8%	midpoint 0.0552
GNO	145	LOWER HALF	112.26	121.30	8.1%	-3.9%	midpoint 116.78
DASH	103	LOWER HALF	52.370	58.010	10.8%	-1.7%	midpoint 53.275
ZEC	10	LOWER HALF	1,208	1,367	13.1%	-3.1%	midpoint 1,247
XTZ	132	LOWER HALF	0.2969	0.3366	13.4%	-5.1%	midpoint 0.3129
BCH	22	LOWER HALF	277.80	316.80	14.0%	-4.6%	midpoint 291.20
CRV	111	LOWER HALF	0.3521	0.4028	14.4%	-4.0%	midpoint 0.3667
ETH	2	LOWER HALF	2,359	2,710	14.9%	-6.9%	midpoint 2,534
INJ	85	LOWER HALF	7.718	8.948	15.9%	-1.7%	midpoint 7.853
XRP	5	LOWER HALF	1.300	1.508	16.0%	-7.2%	midpoint 1.401
FF	130	LOWER HALF	0.0991	0.1162	17.2%	-7.9%	midpoint 0.1076
ETC	70	LOWER HALF	7.670	9.000	17.3%	-8.0%	midpoint 8.335
LUNC	155	LOWER HALF	0.000045	0.000053	17.4%	-7.8%	midpoint 0.000049
SOL	7	LOWER HALF	102.38	120.78	18.0%	-8.3%	midpoint 111.58
CAKE	97	LOWER HALF	2.080	2.466	18.6%	-8.5%	midpoint 2.273
JASMY	170	LOWER HALF	0.004480	0.005320	18.8%	-8.6%	midpoint 0.004900
SHIB	36	LOWER HALF	0.000005	0.000006	19.3%	-8.8%	midpoint 0.000005
LINK	16	LOWER HALF	11.625	13.959	20.1%	-9.1%	midpoint 12.792
DOT	50	LOWER HALF	1.048	1.259	20.1%	-9.2%	midpoint 1.154
GRAM	31	LOWER HALF	1.258	1.524	21.1%	-8.3%	midpoint 1.373
POL	77	LOWER HALF	0.0898	0.1091	21.5%	-9.7%	midpoint 0.0995
KITE	149	LOWER HALF	0.1162	0.1415	21.8%	-9.5%	midpoint 0.1284
BONK	154	LOWER HALF	0.000003	0.000004	21.8%	-6.9%	midpoint 0.000003
ALGO	74	LOWER HALF	0.1045	0.1276	22.1%	-10.0%	midpoint 0.1160
PENDLE	129	LOWER HALF	2.008	2.452	22.1%	-10.0%	midpoint 2.230
TRUMP	114	LOWER HALF	1.684	2.057	22.2%	-10.0%	midpoint 1.870
ZAMA	189	LOWER HALF	0.0700	0.0859	22.7%	-8.8%	midpoint 0.0768
ARB	67	LOWER HALF	0.1694	0.2079	22.7%	-10.2%	midpoint 0.1886
HYPE	11	LOWER HALF	76.690	94.180	22.8%	-10.2%	midpoint 85.435
DOGE	12	LOWER HALF	0.0777	0.0954	22.9%	-10.3%	midpoint 0.0865
LTC	24	LOWER HALF	57.050	70.100	22.9%	-10.3%	midpoint 63.575
TAO	34	LOWER HALF	251.10	309.00	23.1%	-10.3%	midpoint 280.05
RUNE	182	LOWER HALF	0.6310	0.7820	23.9%	-10.7%	midpoint 0.7065
FLOKI	169	LOWER HALF	0.000023	0.000029	24.0%	-10.4%	midpoint 0.000026
THETA	188	LOWER HALF	0.1898	0.2363	24.5%	-10.4%	midpoint 0.2119
RENDER	79	LOWER HALF	1.717	2.141	24.7%	-11.0%	midpoint 1.929
WLD	52	LOWER HALF	0.4691	0.5877	25.3%	-11.2%	midpoint 0.5284
XLM	20	LOWER HALF	0.1716	0.2155	25.6%	-11.3%	midpoint 0.1936
APT	91	LOWER HALF	0.7165	0.9012	25.8%	-11.4%	midpoint 0.8089
ATOM	82	LOWER HALF	1.641	2.066	25.9%	-11.5%	midpoint 1.854
ETHFI	101	LOWER HALF	0.6195	0.7800	25.9%	-11.5%	midpoint 0.6998
LDO	135	LOWER HALF	0.3762	0.4742	26.1%	-11.5%	midpoint 0.4252
S	180	LOWER HALF	0.0483	0.0609	26.2%	-2.9%	midpoint 0.0497
PENGU	119	LOWER HALF	0.007643	0.009666	26.5%	-10.8%	midpoint 0.008572
SKY	63	LOWER HALF	0.0704	0.0893	26.9%	-11.5%	midpoint 0.0795
MORPHO	62	LOWER HALF	2.132	2.707	27.0%	-11.9%	midpoint 2.420
VET	106	LOWER HALF	0.006892	0.008767	27.2%	-11.2%	midpoint 0.007760
ONDO	48	LOWER HALF	0.4099	0.5218	27.3%	-12.0%	midpoint 0.4659
XPL	127	LOWER HALF	0.0744	0.0948	27.5%	-12.1%	midpoint 0.0846
ENA	41	LOWER HALF	0.1954	0.2494	27.6%	-10.7%	midpoint 0.2189
ENS	165	LOWER HALF	5.370	6.860	27.8%	-12.2%	midpoint 6.115
DCR	157	LOWER HALF	14.510	18.560	27.9%	-12.1%	midpoint 16.500
ZRO	89	LOWER HALF	1.760	2.253	28.0%	-11.1%	midpoint 1.980
GRT	152	LOWER HALF	0.0231	0.0296	28.1%	-12.3%	midpoint 0.0263
TIA	100	LOWER HALF	0.5343	0.6885	28.9%	-7.9%	midpoint 0.5801
AVAX	27	LOWER HALF	8.994	11.608	29.1%	-12.7%	midpoint 10.301
SUI	28	LOWER HALF	0.9387	1.214	29.3%	-12.8%	midpoint 1.076
JUP	78	LOWER HALF	0.2895	0.3749	29.5%	-12.9%	midpoint 0.3322
ADA	17	LOWER HALF	0.2082	0.2704	29.9%	-13.0%	midpoint 0.2393
HBAR	32	LOWER HALF	0.0779	0.1017	30.6%	-13.1%	midpoint 0.0896
PYTH	99	LOWER HALF	0.0714	0.0933	30.6%	-12.9%	midpoint 0.0820
AR	160	LOWER HALF	3.476	4.544	30.7%	-13.3%	midpoint 4.010
FIL	81	LOWER HALF	0.9396	1.229	30.8%	-13.3%	midpoint 1.084
NEAR	19	LOWER HALF	4.500	5.896	31.0%	-13.1%	midpoint 5.180
EIGEN	164	LOWER HALF	0.2042	0.2695	32.0%	-13.8%	midpoint 0.2369
UNI	26	LOWER HALF	6.865	9.083	32.3%	-13.9%	midpoint 7.974
IOTA	171	LOWER HALF	0.0439	0.0582	32.6%	-14.0%	midpoint 0.0511
AAVE	44	LOWER HALF	137.86	184.08	33.5%	-14.4%	midpoint 160.97
TWT	185	LOWER HALF	0.4306	0.5776	34.1%	-14.6%	midpoint 0.5041
JTO	162	LOWER HALF	0.4346	0.5830	34.2%	-14.6%	midpoint 0.5088
RAY	117	LOWER HALF	1.838	2.468	34.3%	-13.8%	midpoint 2.131
ICP	60	LOWER HALF	2.667	3.590	34.6%	-14.8%	midpoint 3.129
AXS	194	LOWER HALF	0.9600	1.293	34.7%	-14.8%	midpoint 1.127
AERO	84	LOWER HALF	0.7007	0.9440	34.7%	-14.8%	midpoint 0.8223
WIF	187	LOWER HALF	0.1854	0.2512	35.5%	-15.1%	midpoint 0.2183
VIRTUAL	123	LOWER HALF	0.6292	0.8577	36.3%	-15.4%	midpoint 0.7434
SEI	124	LOWER HALF	0.0543	0.0740	36.3%	-15.4%	midpoint 0.0641
NIGHT	96	LOWER HALF	0.0381	0.0521	36.6%	-15.5%	midpoint 0.0451
CFX	147	LOWER HALF	0.0485	0.0673	38.7%	-16.2%	midpoint 0.0579
OP	143	LOWER HALF	0.1136	0.1585	39.5%	-16.5%	midpoint 0.1361
SYRUP	168	LOWER HALF	0.1783	0.2511	40.8%	-17.0%	midpoint 0.2147
MET	186	LOWER HALF	0.3138	0.4454	41.9%	-15.4%	midpoint 0.3710
STX	92	LOWER HALF	0.3056	0.4349	42.3%	-17.5%	midpoint 0.3702
FET	121	LOWER HALF	0.1787	0.2546	42.5%	-17.5%	midpoint 0.2167
QNT	37	LOWER HALF	179.26	265.52	48.1%	-19.4%	midpoint 222.39
PUMP	49	LOWER HALF	0.004315	0.006466	49.9%	-18.8%	midpoint 0.005317
KAIA	150	LOWER HALF	0.0364	0.0605	66.2%	-24.9%	midpoint 0.0485
STRK	109	LOWER HALF	0.0470	0.1232	161.9%	-44.7%	midpoint 0.0851

Trades taken	Setup	Trades	Won	Avg R	PF	Total R	Worst DD
Every trade	Unfiltered breakout	3,297	34%	+0.89R	2.42	+2944R	203R
	Smart Trend	2,135	39%	+1.18R	2.99	+2509R	242R
Live caps (≤ 3/day, ≤ 6 open)	Unfiltered breakout	729	32%	+0.79R	2.16	+574R	60R
	Smart Trend	454	35%	+0.88R	2.36	+400R	53R

Year traded	Rules picked from the years before	Unfiltered	Filtered
2022	Gap to the 200-day SMA (%) < 29	-0.40R (350)	+0.25R (39)
2023	Days since listing > 752 · Stop distance (%) < 7.16	+1.31R (500)	+1.27R (105)
2024	30-day avg volume (log10 USD) > 7.37 · Days since the previous trade ended < 9	+1.67R (589)	+2.51R (299)
2025	30-day avg volume (log10 USD) > 7.41 · Days since the previous trade ended < 9	+0.17R (530)	+0.45R (303)
2026	30-day avg volume (log10 USD) > 7.4 · 30-day return (%) > 23.5	+0.25R (682)	+0.33R

Stop distance	Trades	Win	Avg net R
< 5%	189	45%	+2.69R
5–8%	521	41%	+1.43R
8–12%	758	35%	+0.95R
12–16%	408	39%	+0.81R
16–25%	224	44%	+0.87R
≥ 25%	35	49%	+0.22R

Days held	Trades	Win	Avg net R
< 3d	144	0%	-1.38R
3–7d	494	1%	-1.09R
7–14d	554	12%	-0.66R
14–30d	714	75%	+1.39R
30–60d	222	100%	+10.42R
≥ 60d	7	100%	+43.95R

Smart Trend: the 20-Day Breakout Without Its Losing Patterns

> strend_verdict

Full period (headline)

2023 to date

> results_by_year · after costs

> equity_curve · cumulative R over time, every trade at equal risk

> daily_scan · top 100 coins · 0 buy · 0 filtered · 6 near · 2 upper half · 92 lower half · updated 2026-10-25 02:05 UTC

> breakdown

Smart Trend vs the unfiltered breakout and each rule alone (2019-2022 vs 2023-2026)

The rules, exactly as tested

What the filter does and does not do

Use it responsibly

Frequently asked questions

Held-back test (Jul–Oct 2026)

Validation periods

> active_signals · fresh BUYs after an AI review · the bot closes them at a daily close below the trailing stop

> strend_performance · 5 signals

> strend_active · 4

KMNO/USDT LONG

COMP/USDT LONG

CVX/USDT LONG

PEPE/USDT LONG

> strend_history · 1

> smart_trend_vs_unfiltered · same 99 coins · 2019-10-16 → today · after costs

> what_winners_and_losers_had_in_common · 3,297 unfiltered trades

> walk_forward · rules picked only from earlier years

By stop distance

By time in the trade

> money_calculator · what would my USDT have become?

> strend_backtest_history · 18 trades · JST · one target at 1R · newest first

Period	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
Full periodOct 2019 – Oct 2026	2,135	39%	+1.18R	+1.20R	2.99	+2509.4R	202R	78
2019-2022in-sample	559	44%	+1.53R	+1.55R	3.70	+852.8R	68R	26
2023 to datein-sample	1,576	38%	+1.05R	+1.08R	2.76	+1656.6R	201R	77
Held-back test (Jul–Oct 2026)entries from 2026-07-07 · in-sample	204	48%	+1.19R	+1.22R	3.86	+242.7R	32R	22

Month	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
2019-10	12	33%	+0.11R	+0.14R	1.25	+1.3R	3R	3
2019-11	5	20%	+0.18R	+0.21R	1.30	+0.9R	2R	2
2019-12	0	no trades
2020-01	14	86%	+1.33R	+1.35R	41.89	+18.6R	0R	1
2020-02	10	70%	+1.40R	+1.43R	7.43	+14.0R	2R	3
2020-03	2	0%	-1.02R	-1.00R	0.00	-2.0R	2R	2
2020-04	13	31%	-0.14R	-0.12R	0.79	-1.8R	5R	5
2020-05	33	27%	-0.32R	-0.29R	0.59	-10.4R	12R	10
2020-06	7	29%	+1.67R	+1.71R	2.95	+11.7R	5R	4
2020-07	28	68%	+3.42R	+3.46R	12.10	+95.7R	3R	3
2020-08	15	47%	+0.55R	+0.57R	2.07	+8.2R	5R	3
2020-09	6	17%	-0.82R	-0.80R	0.24	-4.9R	6R	5
2020-10	17	24%	+0.22R	+0.26R	1.30	+3.7R	10R	6
2020-11	33	58%	+1.91R	+1.94R	7.53	+62.9R	7R	8
2020-12	33	55%	+4.53R	+4.55R	11.31	+149.6R	7R	4
2021-01	39	69%	+5.92R	+5.94R	26.16	+231.0R	5R	6
2021-02	19	79%	+4.78R	+4.80R	34.08	+90.8R	3R	4
2021-03	38	61%	+3.06R	+3.08R	9.08	+116.3R	9R	6
2021-04	34	44%	+2.55R	+2.57R	5.64	+86.6R	11R	9
2021-05	24	0%	-1.39R	-1.38R	0.00	-33.5R	33R	24
2021-06	0	no trades
2021-07	0	no trades
2021-08	49	67%	+1.64R	+1.65R	11.95	+80.2R	2R	4
2021-09	33	12%	-1.12R	-1.09R	0.19	-36.9R	41R	20
2021-10	53	32%	+0.12R	+0.15R	1.20	+6.5R	13R	7
2021-11	26	8%	-0.87R	-0.84R	0.11	-22.5R	22R	14
2021-12	16	13%	-0.83R	-0.81R	0.07	-13.3R	13R	6
2022-01	0	no trades
2022-02	0	no trades
2022-03	0	no trades
2022-04	0	no trades
2022-05	0	no trades
2022-06	0	no trades
2022-07	0	no trades
2022-08	0	no trades
2022-09	0	no trades
2022-10	0	no trades
2022-11	0	no trades
2022-12	0	no trades
2023-01	58	86%	+1.74R	+1.76R	27.46	+100.9R	1R	1
2023-02	36	6%	-0.53R	-0.50R	0.39	-19.1R	23R	25
2023-03	24	33%	-0.15R	-0.13R	0.75	-3.7R	10R	8
2023-04	42	14%	-0.81R	-0.77R	0.09	-34.1R	35R	21
2023-05	29	7%	-1.19R	-1.13R	0.02	-34.6R	35R	21
2023-06	23	48%	+0.58R	+0.61R	2.58	+13.4R	4R	3
2023-07	54	13%	-0.63R	-0.60R	0.13	-34.2R	34R	21
2023-08	10	10%	+0.14R	+0.18R	1.10	+1.4R	11R	7
2023-09	0	no trades
2023-10	62	97%	+5.27R	+5.31R	219.52	+326.5R	1R	1
2023-11	15	60%	+1.12R	+1.15R	3.97	+16.8R	5R	4
2023-12	75	41%	+1.00R	+1.04R	3.09	+75.3R	10R	9
2024-01	22	18%	+0.43R	+0.46R	1.47	+9.4R	12R	12
2024-02	72	79%	+8.87R	+8.91R	60.28	+638.7R	2R	2
2024-03	30	30%	+0.39R	+0.41R	1.52	+11.6R	16R	7
2024-04	16	6%	-1.10R	-1.07R	0.17	-17.6R	21R	15
2024-05	43	37%	-0.22R	-0.18R	0.63	-9.3R	19R	12
2024-06	12	8%	-0.72R	-0.69R	0.37	-8.7R	10R	8
2024-07	38	11%	-0.74R	-0.71R	0.07	-28.1R	28R	20
2024-08	52	0%	-1.01R	-0.99R	0.00	-52.5R	52R	52
2024-09	71	8%	-0.81R	-0.78R	0.06	-57.2R	57R	24
2024-10	49	12%	-0.27R	-0.23R	0.74	-13.1R	39R	32
2024-11	98	71%	+4.62R	+4.64R	19.99	+452.8R	7R	4
2024-12	9	11%	-0.61R	-0.59R	0.32	-5.5R	6R	6
2025-01	38	5%	-0.99R	-0.97R	0.03	-37.6R	38R	15
2025-02	8	0%	-0.93R	-0.91R	0.00	-7.5R	7R	8
2025-03	14	0%	-1.10R	-1.07R	0.00	-15.3R	15R	14
2025-04	63	41%	+0.17R	+0.19R	1.44	+10.8R	6R	7
2025-05	65	32%	-0.15R	-0.12R	0.67	-9.8R	24R	27
2025-06	18	28%	+0.15R	+0.18R	1.20	+2.7R	7R	7
2025-07	85	74%	+1.58R	+1.61R	10.02	+133.9R	12R	11
2025-08	53	11%	+1.61R	+1.64R	2.79	+85.6R	37R	23
2025-09	59	10%	-0.69R	-0.66R	0.29	-40.8R	44R	30
2025-10	26	15%	-1.26R	-1.24R	0.16	-32.9R	33R	13
2025-11	3	0%	-1.38R	-1.35R	0.00	-4.1R	4R	3
2025-12	0	no trades
2026-01	0	no trades
2026-02	0	no trades
2026-03	0	no trades
2026-04	0	no trades
2026-05	0	no trades
2026-06	0	no trades
2026-07	0	no trades
2026-08	96	64%	+2.62R	+2.66R	11.84	+251.6R	5R	5
2026-09	102	36%	-0.02R	+0.01R	0.96	-2.1R	25R	16
2026-10	6	0%	-1.13R	-1.11R	0.00	-6.8R	7R	6

Coin	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
BNBfrom 2019-10	45	42%	+1.10R	+1.14R	2.87	+49.6R	12R	12
BATfrom 2019-11	44	30%	+0.10R	+0.13R	1.16	+4.5R	6R	5
ETHfrom 2019-11	43	47%	+0.83R	+0.87R	2.36	+35.7R	7R	4
BCHfrom 2020-01	42	38%	+0.23R	+0.26R	1.34	+9.6R	6R	5
LTCfrom 2019-10	42	40%	+0.08R	+0.11R	1.13	+3.1R	7R	4
BTCfrom 2019-10	41	49%	+1.00R	+1.04R	2.74	+40.8R	3R	3
ETCfrom 2019-11	41	34%	+0.65R	+0.69R	1.91	+26.8R	13R	8
IOTAfrom 2019-10	40	38%	+0.41R	+0.44R	1.63	+16.6R	10R	5
LINKfrom 2020-01	40	43%	+0.51R	+0.54R	2.04	+20.4R	8R	5
COMPfrom 2020-08	39	28%	-0.08R	-0.06R	0.90	-3.3R	10R	7
DASHfrom 2019-11	39	31%	+0.82R	+0.85R	2.23	+32.0R	7R	5
TRXfrom 2019-10	39	49%	+0.79R	+0.84R	2.67	+30.8R	6R	3
ATOMfrom 2019-10	38	39%	+0.24R	+0.27R	1.43	+9.0R	7R	3
HBARfrom 2020-02	38	37%	+1.53R	+1.56R	3.68	+58.3R	6R	5
XLMfrom 2019-10	38	42%	+1.93R	+1.97R	4.63	+73.5R	7R	3
THETAfrom 2019-10	37	41%	+1.97R	+2.00R	4.34	+72.9R	9R	7
ADAfrom 2019-10	36	44%	+1.91R	+1.94R	4.79	+68.7R	5R	5
STXfrom 2020-02	36	39%	+1.21R	+1.23R	3.25	+43.6R	9R	8
VETfrom 2019-10	36	50%	+1.63R	+1.66R	4.64	+58.7R	6R	5
XTZfrom 2019-11	36	39%	+0.75R	+0.78R	2.32	+27.0R	7R	6
AAVEfrom 2020-11	35	31%	+1.02R	+1.05R	2.45	+35.7R	14R	6
ALGOfrom 2020-02	35	43%	+1.28R	+1.31R	3.22	+44.9R	5R	4
DOGEfrom 2020-02	35	49%	+3.15R	+3.19R	7.29	+110.3R	3R	4
JSTfrom 2020-12	35	37%	+0.42R	+0.46R	1.59	+14.8R	10R	7
XRPfrom 2019-10	34	47%	+3.18R	+3.22R	7.17	+108.1R	3R	3
ZECfrom 2019-10	33	52%	+4.66R	+4.68R	13.47	+153.7R	5R	6
DCRfrom 2020-08	32	41%	+0.50R	+0.53R	1.71	+16.0R	8R	4
FETfrom 2020-02	32	38%	+2.85R	+2.88R	5.64	+91.3R	6R	5
SOLfrom 2020-09	31	55%	+2.71R	+2.74R	6.86	+84.1R	4R	4
AXSfrom 2020-12	30	40%	+0.31R	+0.33R	1.53	+9.3R	8R	6
INJfrom 2020-11	30	40%	+2.45R	+2.47R	5.52	+73.6R	7R	7
DOTfrom 2020-11	29	34%	+1.33R	+1.36R	3.05	+38.4R	5R	5
CRVfrom 2021-01	28	39%	+1.35R	+1.37R	3.37	+37.7R	9R	9
RUNEfrom 2020-11	28	50%	+1.44R	+1.47R	4.31	+40.4R	7R	7
TWTfrom 2021-02	28	36%	+0.57R	+0.61R	1.92	+16.1R	7R	6
UNIfrom 2020-11	28	36%	+1.21R	+1.23R	2.83	+33.8R	10R	7
AVAXfrom 2020-11	27	48%	+4.32R	+4.34R	10.02	+116.5R	4R	3
NEARfrom 2020-11	27	52%	+3.73R	+3.76R	7.41	+100.8R	5R	3
LDOfrom 2023-01	26	19%	-0.38R	-0.36R	0.52	-9.8R	10R	8
FILfrom 2021-01	25	36%	+1.34R	+1.37R	3.69	+33.6R	4R	4
ICPfrom 2021-08	25	28%	+0.50R	+0.53R	1.76	+12.5R	9R	7
RAYfrom 2021-08	25	44%	+3.56R	+3.58R	10.04	+88.9R	4R	3
APTfrom 2023-01	24	25%	-0.47R	-0.44R	0.41	-11.3R	15R	8
ARfrom 2021-08	24	42%	+2.28R	+2.30R	4.89	+54.7R	6R	3
CFXfrom 2021-08	24	33%	+1.16R	+1.18R	2.64	+27.9R	8R	4
GNOfrom 2021-10	24	42%	+1.16R	+1.20R	2.74	+27.9R	7R	5
GRTfrom 2021-01	24	50%	+1.81R	+1.83R	5.44	+43.4R	4R	4
NEXOfrom 2023-01	24	38%	+0.39R	+0.44R	1.53	+9.3R	5R	4
QNTfrom 2021-08	22	36%	+0.05R	+0.08R	1.07	+1.1R	5R	4
SUNfrom 2021-01	22	50%	+1.85R	+1.89R	5.07	+40.7R	5R	4
CAKEfrom 2021-03	21	43%	+1.47R	+1.49R	4.47	+30.8R	4R	4
ENSfrom 2023-01	21	29%	+0.58R	+0.61R	2.06	+12.2R	6R	8
OPfrom 2023-01	21	38%	-0.12R	-0.10R	0.83	-2.6R	11R	5
SHIBfrom 2021-08	21	43%	+3.52R	+3.55R	6.89	+73.9R	6R	5
ARBfrom 2023-04	19	37%	+0.08R	+0.11R	1.14	+1.6R	4R	4
JASMYfrom 2023-01	19	37%	+2.61R	+2.63R	5.76	+49.5R	4R	6
LUNCfrom 2023-01	19	26%	+0.34R	+0.37R	1.50	+6.4R	5R	5
JTOfrom 2024-01	18	17%	-0.59R	-0.57R	0.27	-10.7R	11R	10
PENDLEfrom 2023-10	17	41%	+1.14R	+1.16R	3.71	+19.4R	5R	8
SUIfrom 2023-10	16	56%	+0.62R	+0.64R	2.93	+9.9R	2R	3
WLDfrom 2023-10	16	38%	+0.09R	+0.11R	1.18	+1.5R	4R	3
CVXfrom 2023-01	15	53%	+1.81R	+1.84R	6.08	+27.2R	2R	2
JUPfrom 2024-03	15	27%	+0.99R	+1.01R	2.64	+14.8R	8R	10
PEPEfrom 2023-06	15	67%	+2.89R	+2.91R	10.57	+43.4R	2R	2
FLOKIfrom 2023-07	14	50%	+6.58R	+6.61R	10.77	+92.1R	4R	2
SEIfrom 2023-10	14	57%	+1.73R	+1.75R	4.79	+24.3R	3R	4
BONKfrom 2024-02	13	46%	+0.48R	+0.50R	2.23	+6.3R	3R	3
TAOfrom 2024-08	13	38%	-0.41R	-0.39R	0.40	-5.3R	6R	4
PYTHfrom 2024-02	12	33%	-0.30R	-0.28R	0.53	-3.6R	6R	5
TIAfrom 2023-12	12	8%	-0.59R	-0.57R	0.16	-7.0R	8R	11
WIFfrom 2024-03	12	42%	+0.36R	+0.38R	1.49	+4.3R	4R	4
ZROfrom 2024-07	12	17%	-0.69R	-0.67R	0.30	-8.2R	10R	6
ENAfrom 2024-05	11	36%	+1.19R	+1.21R	3.12	+13.1R	3R	3
ETHFIfrom 2024-09	11	45%	+0.13R	+0.15R	1.27	+1.5R	2R	2
STRKfrom 2024-03	11	18%	-0.52R	-0.50R	0.39	-5.7R	9R	6
RENDERfrom 2024-08	10	30%	+0.20R	+0.22R	1.39	+2.0R	4R	5
SYRUPfrom 2025-06	10	0%	-0.89R	-0.87R	0.00	-8.9R	9R	10
EIGENfrom 2024-11	9	44%	-0.39R	-0.37R	0.46	-3.5R	6R	4
KAIAfrom 2024-11	9	33%	+0.38R	+0.41R	1.61	+3.5R	4R	3
POLfrom 2024-11	9	33%	+0.06R	+0.08R	1.12	+0.5R	3R	2
Sfrom 2025-02	9	11%	-0.68R	-0.66R	0.12	-6.1R	7R	8
KMNOfrom 2025-06	6	50%	+0.77R	+0.80R	2.68	+4.6R	3R	3
ONDOfrom 2025-05	6	33%	+0.19R	+0.21R	1.34	+1.1R	3R	3
PENGUfrom 2025-01	6	50%	+0.96R	+0.98R	2.68	+5.8R	1R	1
VIRTUALfrom 2025-05	6	33%	-0.24R	-0.22R	0.59	-1.5R	3R	3
TRUMPfrom 2025-04	5	20%	-0.52R	-0.49R	0.31	-2.6R	4R	4
MORPHOfrom 2025-10	3	33%	-0.11R	-0.09R	0.81	-0.3R	1R	1
PUMPfrom 2026-08	3	0%	-0.50R	-0.49R	0.00	-1.5R	2R	3
WLFIfrom 2025-09	3	0%	-1.52R	-1.48R	0.00	-4.6R	5R	3
AEROfrom 2026-08	2	0%	-0.31R	-0.29R	0.00	-0.6R	1R	2
ASTERfrom 2026-08	2	50%	+0.63R	+0.70R	3.72	+1.3R	0R	1
FFfrom 2025-10	2	50%	+3.78R	+3.80R	6.28	+7.6R	1R	1
GRAMfrom 2026-08	2	0%	-0.80R	-0.76R	0.00	-1.6R	2R	2
KITEfrom 2026-08	2	50%	-0.18R	-0.15R	0.68	-0.3R	1R	1
SKYfrom 2026-08	2	100%	+0.44R	+0.47R	—	+0.9R	0R	0
XPLfrom 2026-08	2	50%	+0.57R	+0.61R	2.23	+1.1R	1R	1
ZAMAfrom 2026-08	2	50%	+0.80R	+0.82R	4.50	+1.6R	0R	1
METfrom 2026-08	1	0%	-0.63R	-0.61R	0.00	-0.6R	1R	1

Year	Trades	Start	End	Change
2019	7	500 USDT	503.34 USDT	+0.7%
2020	71	503.34 USDT	1,084 USDT	+115.3%
2021	75	1,084 USDT	3,223 USDT	+197.4%
2022	5	3,223 USDT	3,175 USDT	-1.5%
2023	77	3,175 USDT	5,118 USDT	+61.2%
2024	102	5,118 USDT	7,432 USDT	+45.2%
2025	93	7,432 USDT	13,643 USDT	+83.6%
2026	24	13,643 USDT	12,803 USDT	-6.2%

Take profit	Target reached	Won	Avg net R	Total R	PF
As tested	—	37%	+0.42R	+15R	1.59
One target at 0.5R	66%	66%	-0.11R	-4R	0.74
One target at 1R	51%	51%	-0.08R	-3R	0.87
One target at 1.5R	46%	46%	+0.05R	+2R

Entry (UTC)	Coin	Entry	Stop	Target 1R	RRR	Breakout %	Exit	Net R	Net %	As tested
2026-09-05 00:00HB	JST LONG	0.1091	0.1019	0.1162	1.00	0.69	Target 1R 09-16 00:00	+0.97R	+6.33%	+3.12R
2025-10-22 00:00	JST LONG	0.0332	0.0318	0.0347	1.00	0.21	Target 1R 10-30 00:00	+0.95R

Smart Trend: the 20-Day Breakout Without Its Losing Patterns

> strend_verdict

Full period (headline)

2023 to date

> results_by_year · after costs

> equity_curve · cumulative R over time, every trade at equal risk

> daily_scan · top 100 coins · 0 buy · 0 filtered · 6 near · 2 upper half · 92 lower half · updated 2026-10-25 02:05 UTC

> breakdown

Smart Trend vs the unfiltered breakout and each rule alone (2019-2022 vs 2023-2026)

The rules, exactly as tested

What the filter does and does not do

Use it responsibly

Frequently asked questions

Related guides

Held-back test (Jul–Oct 2026)

Validation periods

> active_signals · fresh BUYs after an AI review · the bot closes them at a daily close below the trailing stop

> strend_performance · 5 signals

> strend_active · 4

> strend_history · 1

> smart_trend_vs_unfiltered · same 99 coins · 2019-10-16 → today · after costs

> what_winners_and_losers_had_in_common · 3,297 unfiltered trades

> walk_forward · rules picked only from earlier years

By stop distance

By time in the trade

> money_calculator · what would my USDT have become?

> strend_backtest_history · 18 trades · JST · one target at 1R · newest first