What is the Smart Trend setup?

Trend Breakout with a filter. A coin from today's top 100 by market cap is bought when its daily close beats every close of the previous 20 days; the stop sits at the middle of that 20-day range, is raised after every daily close and never lowered, and the trade is sold at the first daily close below it. Smart Trend skips the breakout when btc below its 200-day sma, or when 50-day sma down > 5.93% in 10 days. Those two patterns were the strongest shared trait of Trend Breakout's losing trades.

How were the losing patterns found?

Every Trend Breakout trade on the same 100 coins since October 2019 (3,297 trades) was tagged with 22 facts known on the breakout day: momentum, volume, volatility, distance from highs, BTC's trend, how many coins broke out, coin age, liquidity and the coin's previous trade. A search then looked for the skip rule that lifts the average of the remaining trades the most, and accepted it only if it helped in both halves of the data. It kept two rules.

Is Smart Trend better than Trend Breakout?

Per trade, yes, in this backtest: +1.18R against +0.89R on the same coins, 39% of trades won against 34%, profit factor 2.99 against 2.42. But the rules were picked on these years, so that comparison flatters it. The fairer test is walk-forward: picking the rules each year only from the years before and trading the next year, the filtered version beat the unfiltered one in 4 of 5 years (2022-2026), +0.96R against +0.66R per trade. A first, stricter search failed outright, and the page shows that too.

Why does Smart Trend sometimes give no signals for months?

Because of the BTC rule. While BTC closes below its 200-day moving average, Smart Trend takes no trade at all. In the backtest it sat out the whole of 2022 and the first half of 2026, which is where most of its edge over the unfiltered breakout comes from. When BTC is above the line it trades like Trend Breakout, minus breakouts in coins whose 50-day average is falling fast.

Is there any leverage?

No. Smart Trend is a spot, long-only setup: buy the coin, hold it, sell it. The backtest uses no margin, no futures and no borrowing, and each live signal is sized so a full stop costs 1% of the capital: position = 1% of capital / stop distance. With the median stop 9.59% below the entry that is about 10% of the capital per trade, never more than 100%. Using leverage would add liquidation risk and funding costs that were not tested.

Why do most trades still lose?

It is still trend following: 39% of trades won after fees and the median trade lost +0.49R. The profit comes from a few long trends (21% of trades reached +5R, 10% reached +10R). The longest losing run was 78 trades counting every trade in entry order (26 with the live caps).

Smart Trend Strategy: Filtered Crypto Breakout Backtest

STREND backtest results per calendar year
Year	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
2019	17	29%	+0.13R	+0.16R	1.27	+2.3R	4R	5
2020	211	48%	+1.64R	+1.67R	4.32	+345.3R	18R	12
2021	331	42%	+1.53R	+1.55R	3.48	+505.2R	71R	26
2023	428	44%	+0.95R

Coin	Rank	State	Close	Trigger	To trigger	vs midpoint	Levels / reason
KMNO	172	BUY	0.0421	0.0421	—	+9.7%	2026-10-24 close 0.0421 · stop 0.0384 · +2R 0.0496 · +5R 0.0607 (risk 8.8%, size 11.4% at 1% risk, not published: too late or price already moved)
JST	72	NEAR	0.1411	0.1428	1.2%	+2.8%	midpoint 0.1372
PEPE

Variant	Before test n	Before test avg R	Before test PF	Held-back n	Held-back avg R	Held-back PF
Smart Trend (both rules, as live) (spec)	559	+1.53R	3.70	1576	+1.05R	2.76
Trend Breakout, no filter (same 100 coins)	996	+1.05R	2.65	2301	+0.83R	2.32
Only: skip when BTC below its 200-day SMA	599	+1.40R	3.39	1692	+0.98R	2.59
Only: skip when 50-day SMA down > 5.93% in 10 days	875	+1.02R	2.62

The rules, exactly as tested

Binance spot daily candles (UTC), closed candles only. Coins: today's top 100 by market cap that trade against USDT on Binance (stablecoins, gold tokens and wrapped copies left out). Long only, one trade per coin at a time.

Breakout. The daily close is higher than the highest close of the previous 20 days. Entry = that close.
Skip rule 1. No trade when BTC closes below its 200-day SMA: alt breakouts in a BTC downtrend fail more often.
Skip rule 2. No trade when the coin's 50-day SMA fell more than 5.93% in 10 days: a bounce inside a falling trend.
Stop. The midpoint of the highest and lowest close of the last 20 days. After every later daily close it moves up to the new midpoint if that is higher; it never moves down.
Exit. The first daily close below the stop in force before that close. No take-profit, no time stop; +2R, +5R, +10R are milestones on the signal card, not exits.
A skipped breakout leaves the coin free. If tomorrow's close is a new breakout and passes the rules, it is a trade.
Costs. 0.1% spot fee on each side and 0.02% slippage on the entry and the exit.
No leverage. Spot only; each signal is sized so the stop costs 1% of the capital (position = 1% / stop distance, at most 100%).

What the filter does and does not do

Most of the gain comes from the BTC rule: it keeps Smart Trend out of bear markets (all of 2022, the first half of 2026), where breakouts failed one after another. In good years it sometimes does a little worse than the unfiltered breakout, because it skips a few early breakouts that turned into big trends. With the live caps it ended the 7 years with less in total than the unfiltered breakout (+400R against +574R): it trades less often, so it is a better trade and a smaller drawdown (53R against 60R), not a bigger total. It does not make losers rare: about 6 trades in 10 still lose, and the profit still comes from a few long trends. Compare it with Trend Breakout and every other setup on all backtests.

By year (every trade): 2019 +0.13R, 2020 +1.64R, 2021 +1.53R, 2023 +0.95R, 2024 +1.80R, 2025 +0.20R, 2026 +1.19R per trade; the unfiltered breakout on its own 72-coin list is on the Trend Breakout page (+0.92R per trade since 2019).

Use it responsibly

These signals are automated and educational, not financial advice. The filter was chosen by looking at past trades, so expect the live result to be weaker than the backtest. Most trades lose, losing runs of 20 or more happen and stops are often 10% below the entry. The coins are today's top 100, so coins that died are missing, which flatters a long-only backtest. Read the disclaimer.

Coin	Rank	State	Close	Trigger	To trigger	vs midpoint	Levels / reason
COMP	173	UPPER HALF	24.060	25.920	7.7%	+1.9%	midpoint 23.620
CVX	196	UPPER HALF	2.427	2.621	8.0%	+7.6%	midpoint 2.257
S	180	UPPER HALF	0.0510	0.0609	19.4%	+2.6%	midpoint 0.0497
BAT	148	UPPER HALF	0.1681	0.2159	28.4%	+6.2%	midpoint 0.1583
SUN	138	LOWER HALF	0.0164	0.0173	5.4%	-2.6%	midpoint 0.0168
ASTER	51	LOWER HALF	0.6978	0.7367	5.6%	-1.9%	midpoint 0.7110
WLFI	55	LOWER HALF	0.0541	0.0573	5.9%	-2.3%	midpoint 0.0553
NEXO	88	LOWER HALF	0.8150	0.8650	6.1%	-2.3%	midpoint 0.8345
BTC	1	LOWER HALF	81,189	86,530	6.6%	-3.2%	midpoint 83,860
BNB	4	LOWER HALF	739.59	795.43	7.6%	-2.3%	midpoint 756.72
GNO	145	LOWER HALF	112.41	121.30	7.9%	-3.8%	midpoint 116.84
XTZ	132	LOWER HALF	0.3039	0.3366	10.8%	-2.9%	midpoint 0.3129
BCH	22	LOWER HALF	282.50	318.90	12.9%	-3.3%	midpoint 292.25
CRV	111	LOWER HALF	0.3563	0.4028	13.1%	-2.8%	midpoint 0.3667
ETH	2	LOWER HALF	2,388	2,727	14.2%	-6.6%	midpoint 2,557
INJ	85	LOWER HALF	7.790	8.948	14.9%	-0.8%	midpoint 7.853
DASH	103	LOWER HALF	51.860	59.730	15.2%	-4.2%	midpoint 54.135
ZEC	10	LOWER HALF	1,183	1,367	15.5%	-5.1%	midpoint 1,247
FF	130	LOWER HALF	0.1004	0.1162	15.8%	-7.3%	midpoint 0.1083
DOT	50	LOWER HALF	1.087	1.259	15.8%	-7.3%	midpoint 1.173
ETC	70	LOWER HALF	7.770	9.020	16.1%	-7.1%	midpoint 8.365
JASMY	170	LOWER HALF	0.004630	0.005400	16.6%	-6.6%	midpoint 0.004955
XRP	5	LOWER HALF	1.295	1.521	17.4%	-8.0%	midpoint 1.407
CAKE	97	LOWER HALF	2.134	2.508	17.5%	-7.9%	midpoint 2.318
LUNC	155	LOWER HALF	0.000045	0.000053	17.8%	-8.1%	midpoint 0.000049
SOL	7	LOWER HALF	102.85	121.60	18.2%	-8.4%	midpoint 112.23
SHIB	36	LOWER HALF	0.000005	0.000006	18.7%	-8.3%	midpoint 0.000005
PENDLE	129	LOWER HALF	2.038	2.452	20.3%	-9.2%	midpoint 2.245
ZAMA	189	LOWER HALF	0.0725	0.0874	20.5%	-6.4%	midpoint 0.0775
LINK	16	LOWER HALF	11.830	14.278	20.7%	-9.4%	midpoint 13.054
ATOM	82	LOWER HALF	1.708	2.066	21.0%	-9.1%	midpoint 1.879
TAO	34	LOWER HALF	255.20	309.00	21.1%	-9.5%	midpoint 282.10
ARB	67	LOWER HALF	0.1717	0.2079	21.1%	-9.5%	midpoint 0.1898
TRUMP	114	LOWER HALF	1.705	2.065	21.1%	-9.6%	midpoint 1.885
ETHFI	101	LOWER HALF	0.6440	0.7800	21.1%	-9.4%	midpoint 0.7105
THETA	188	LOWER HALF	0.1941	0.2363	21.7%	-8.4%	midpoint 0.2119
WLD	52	LOWER HALF	0.4825	0.5877	21.8%	-9.6%	midpoint 0.5337
MORPHO	62	LOWER HALF	2.249	2.741	21.9%	-9.9%	midpoint 2.495
DOGE	12	LOWER HALF	0.0786	0.0959	22.0%	-9.9%	midpoint 0.0873
HYPE	11	LOWER HALF	77.140	94.180	22.1%	-10.0%	midpoint 85.660
APT	91	LOWER HALF	0.7371	0.9012	22.3%	-10.0%	midpoint 0.8190
FLOKI	169	LOWER HALF	0.000024	0.000029	22.5%	-9.4%	midpoint 0.000026
POL	77	LOWER HALF	0.0898	0.1101	22.6%	-10.2%	midpoint 0.1000
LTC	24	LOWER HALF	57.270	70.700	23.5%	-10.5%	midpoint 63.985
RENDER	79	LOWER HALF	1.734	2.141	23.5%	-10.5%	midpoint 1.938
LDO	135	LOWER HALF	0.3833	0.4742	23.7%	-10.6%	midpoint 0.4286
PENGU	119	LOWER HALF	0.007769	0.009666	24.4%	-9.4%	midpoint 0.008572
KITE	149	LOWER HALF	0.1180	0.1469	24.5%	-10.0%	midpoint 0.1311
ONDO	48	LOWER HALF	0.4189	0.5218	24.6%	-10.9%	midpoint 0.4704
BONK	154	LOWER HALF	0.000003	0.000004	24.8%	-8.5%	midpoint 0.000003
ALGO	74	LOWER HALF	0.1061	0.1326	25.0%	-11.1%	midpoint 0.1194
VET	106	LOWER HALF	0.007083	0.008856	25.0%	-9.2%	midpoint 0.007805
JUP	78	LOWER HALF	0.2998	0.3749	25.1%	-9.8%	midpoint 0.3322
ENA	41	LOWER HALF	0.1992	0.2494	25.2%	-9.0%	midpoint 0.2189
DCR	157	LOWER HALF	14.810	18.560	25.3%	-10.2%	midpoint 16.500
GRAM	31	LOWER HALF	1.221	1.532	25.5%	-11.3%	midpoint 1.377
ENS	165	LOWER HALF	5.480	6.880	25.6%	-11.2%	midpoint 6.170
GRT	152	LOWER HALF	0.0236	0.0296	25.6%	-11.3%	midpoint 0.0266
NEAR	19	LOWER HALF	4.691	5.896	25.7%	-9.4%	midpoint 5.180
RUNE	182	LOWER HALF	0.6320	0.7960	26.0%	-11.5%	midpoint 0.7140
SUI	28	LOWER HALF	0.9608	1.214	26.3%	-11.6%	midpoint 1.087
XPL	127	LOWER HALF	0.0760	0.0963	26.7%	-11.6%	midpoint 0.0859
AAVE	44	LOWER HALF	144.37	184.08	27.5%	-12.1%	midpoint 164.23
FIL	81	LOWER HALF	0.9600	1.229	28.0%	-12.3%	midpoint 1.094
TIA	100	LOWER HALF	0.5378	0.6885	28.0%	-7.3%	midpoint 0.5801
AVAX	27	LOWER HALF	9.060	11.608	28.1%	-12.3%	midpoint 10.334
ADA	17	LOWER HALF	0.2109	0.2704	28.2%	-12.4%	midpoint 0.2406
AERO	84	LOWER HALF	0.7332	0.9440	28.8%	-12.6%	midpoint 0.8386
AR	160	LOWER HALF	3.528	4.544	28.8%	-12.6%	midpoint 4.036
XLM	20	LOWER HALF	0.1734	0.2241	29.2%	-12.8%	midpoint 0.1987
EIGEN	164	LOWER HALF	0.2079	0.2695	29.6%	-12.9%	midpoint 0.2387
TWT	185	LOWER HALF	0.4441	0.5776	30.1%	-13.1%	midpoint 0.5109
UNI	26	LOWER HALF	6.970	9.083	30.3%	-13.2%	midpoint 8.027
ICP	60	LOWER HALF	2.740	3.590	31.0%	-12.9%	midpoint 3.147
JTO	162	LOWER HALF	0.4446	0.5830	31.1%	-13.3%	midpoint 0.5126
PYTH	99	LOWER HALF	0.0707	0.0933	31.9%	-13.7%	midpoint 0.0820
CFX	147	LOWER HALF	0.0510	0.0673	31.9%	-12.9%	midpoint 0.0586
ZRO	89	LOWER HALF	1.706	2.253	32.1%	-13.8%	midpoint 1.980
SEI	124	LOWER HALF	0.0559	0.0740	32.3%	-13.9%	midpoint 0.0650
VIRTUAL	123	LOWER HALF	0.6462	0.8577	32.7%	-14.1%	midpoint 0.7520
IOTA	171	LOWER HALF	0.0443	0.0591	33.4%	-14.2%	midpoint 0.0516
NIGHT	96	LOWER HALF	0.0390	0.0521	33.7%	-13.9%	midpoint 0.0452
HBAR	32	LOWER HALF	0.0775	0.1040	34.2%	-14.6%	midpoint 0.0907
WIF	187	LOWER HALF	0.1886	0.2538	34.6%	-14.7%	midpoint 0.2212
RAY	117	LOWER HALF	1.811	2.468	36.3%	-15.0%	midpoint 2.131
SKY	63	LOWER HALF	0.0714	0.0978	37.0%	-14.8%	midpoint 0.0837
AXS	194	LOWER HALF	0.9910	1.360	37.2%	-15.7%	midpoint 1.176
OP	143	LOWER HALF	0.1153	0.1585	37.5%	-15.8%	midpoint 0.1369
STX	92	LOWER HALF	0.3130	0.4349	39.0%	-16.3%	midpoint 0.3740
MET	186	LOWER HALF	0.3181	0.4454	40.0%	-14.3%	midpoint 0.3710
FET	121	LOWER HALF	0.1794	0.2546	41.9%	-17.3%	midpoint 0.2170
SYRUP	168	LOWER HALF	0.1817	0.2591	42.6%	-17.6%	midpoint 0.2204
QNT	37	LOWER HALF	181.59	265.52	46.2%	-18.8%	midpoint 223.56
PUMP	49	LOWER HALF	0.004294	0.006521	51.9%	-19.7%	midpoint 0.005344
KAIA	150	LOWER HALF	0.0373	0.0605	62.2%	-23.5%	midpoint 0.0488
STRK	109	LOWER HALF	0.0495	0.1232	148.9%	-42.5%	midpoint 0.0861

Trades taken	Setup	Trades	Won	Avg R	PF	Total R	Worst DD
Every trade	Unfiltered breakout	3,297	34%	+0.89R	2.42	+2944R	203R
	Smart Trend	2,135	39%	+1.18R	2.99	+2509R	242R
Live caps (≤ 3/day, ≤ 6 open)	Unfiltered breakout	729	32%	+0.79R	2.16	+574R	60R
	Smart Trend	454	35%	+0.88R	2.36	+400R	53R

Year traded	Rules picked from the years before	Unfiltered	Filtered
2022	Gap to the 200-day SMA (%) < 29	-0.40R (350)	+0.25R (39)
2023	Days since listing > 752 · Stop distance (%) < 7.16	+1.31R (500)	+1.27R (105)
2024	30-day avg volume (log10 USD) > 7.37 · Days since the previous trade ended < 9	+1.67R (589)	+2.51R (299)
2025	30-day avg volume (log10 USD) > 7.41 · Days since the previous trade ended < 9	+0.17R (530)	+0.45R (303)
2026	30-day avg volume (log10 USD) > 7.4 · 30-day return (%) > 23.5	+0.25R (682)	+0.33R

Stop distance	Trades	Win	Avg net R
< 5%	189	45%	+2.69R
5–8%	521	41%	+1.43R
8–12%	758	35%	+0.95R
12–16%	408	39%	+0.81R
16–25%	224	44%	+0.87R
≥ 25%	35	49%	+0.22R

Days held	Trades	Win	Avg net R
< 3d	144	0%	-1.38R
3–7d	494	1%	-1.09R
7–14d	554	12%	-0.66R
14–30d	714	75%	+1.39R
30–60d	222	100%	+10.42R
≥ 60d	7	100%	+43.95R

Smart Trend: the 20-Day Breakout Without Its Losing Patterns

> strend_verdict

Full period (headline)

2023 to date

> results_by_year · after costs

> equity_curve · cumulative R over time, every trade at equal risk

> daily_scan · top 100 coins · 1 buy · 0 filtered · 3 near · 4 upper half · 92 lower half · updated 2026-10-24 22:05 UTC

> breakdown

Smart Trend vs the unfiltered breakout and each rule alone (2019-2022 vs 2023-2026)

The rules, exactly as tested

What the filter does and does not do

Use it responsibly

Frequently asked questions

Held-back test (Jul–Oct 2026)

Validation periods

> active_signals · fresh BUYs after an AI review · the bot closes them at a daily close below the trailing stop

> strend_performance · 5 signals

> strend_active · 4

KMNO/USDT LONG

COMP/USDT LONG

CVX/USDT LONG

PEPE/USDT LONG

> strend_history · 1

> smart_trend_vs_unfiltered · same 99 coins · 2019-10-16 → today · after costs

> what_winners_and_losers_had_in_common · 3,297 unfiltered trades

> walk_forward · rules picked only from earlier years

By stop distance

By time in the trade

> money_calculator · what would my USDT have become?

> strend_backtest_history · 12 trades · ZRO · one target at 10R · newest first

Period	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
Full periodOct 2019 – Oct 2026	2,135	39%	+1.18R	+1.20R	2.99	+2509.4R	202R	78
2019-2022in-sample	559	44%	+1.53R	+1.55R	3.70	+852.8R	68R	26
2023 to datein-sample	1,576	38%	+1.05R	+1.08R	2.76	+1656.6R	201R	77
Held-back test (Jul–Oct 2026)entries from 2026-07-07 · in-sample	204	48%	+1.19R	+1.22R	3.86	+242.7R	32R	22

Month	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
2019-10	12	33%	+0.11R	+0.14R	1.25	+1.3R	3R	3
2019-11	5	20%	+0.18R	+0.21R	1.30	+0.9R	2R	2
2019-12	0	no trades
2020-01	14	86%	+1.33R	+1.35R	41.89	+18.6R	0R	1
2020-02	10	70%	+1.40R	+1.43R	7.43	+14.0R	2R	3
2020-03	2	0%	-1.02R	-1.00R	0.00	-2.0R	2R	2
2020-04	13	31%	-0.14R	-0.12R	0.79	-1.8R	5R	5
2020-05	33	27%	-0.32R	-0.29R	0.59	-10.4R	12R	10
2020-06	7	29%	+1.67R	+1.71R	2.95	+11.7R	5R	4
2020-07	28	68%	+3.42R	+3.46R	12.10	+95.7R	3R	3
2020-08	15	47%	+0.55R	+0.57R	2.07	+8.2R	5R	3
2020-09	6	17%	-0.82R	-0.80R	0.24	-4.9R	6R	5
2020-10	17	24%	+0.22R	+0.26R	1.30	+3.7R	10R	6
2020-11	33	58%	+1.91R	+1.94R	7.53	+62.9R	7R	8
2020-12	33	55%	+4.53R	+4.55R	11.31	+149.6R	7R	4
2021-01	39	69%	+5.92R	+5.94R	26.16	+231.0R	5R	6
2021-02	19	79%	+4.78R	+4.80R	34.08	+90.8R	3R	4
2021-03	38	61%	+3.06R	+3.08R	9.08	+116.3R	9R	6
2021-04	34	44%	+2.55R	+2.57R	5.64	+86.6R	11R	9
2021-05	24	0%	-1.39R	-1.38R	0.00	-33.5R	33R	24
2021-06	0	no trades
2021-07	0	no trades
2021-08	49	67%	+1.64R	+1.65R	11.95	+80.2R	2R	4
2021-09	33	12%	-1.12R	-1.09R	0.19	-36.9R	41R	20
2021-10	53	32%	+0.12R	+0.15R	1.20	+6.5R	13R	7
2021-11	26	8%	-0.87R	-0.84R	0.11	-22.5R	22R	14
2021-12	16	13%	-0.83R	-0.81R	0.07	-13.3R	13R	6
2022-01	0	no trades
2022-02	0	no trades
2022-03	0	no trades
2022-04	0	no trades
2022-05	0	no trades
2022-06	0	no trades
2022-07	0	no trades
2022-08	0	no trades
2022-09	0	no trades
2022-10	0	no trades
2022-11	0	no trades
2022-12	0	no trades
2023-01	58	86%	+1.74R	+1.76R	27.46	+100.9R	1R	1
2023-02	36	6%	-0.53R	-0.50R	0.39	-19.1R	23R	25
2023-03	24	33%	-0.15R	-0.13R	0.75	-3.7R	10R	8
2023-04	42	14%	-0.81R	-0.77R	0.09	-34.1R	35R	21
2023-05	29	7%	-1.19R	-1.13R	0.02	-34.6R	35R	21
2023-06	23	48%	+0.58R	+0.61R	2.58	+13.4R	4R	3
2023-07	54	13%	-0.63R	-0.60R	0.13	-34.2R	34R	21
2023-08	10	10%	+0.14R	+0.18R	1.10	+1.4R	11R	7
2023-09	0	no trades
2023-10	62	97%	+5.27R	+5.31R	219.52	+326.5R	1R	1
2023-11	15	60%	+1.12R	+1.15R	3.97	+16.8R	5R	4
2023-12	75	41%	+1.00R	+1.04R	3.09	+75.3R	10R	9
2024-01	22	18%	+0.43R	+0.46R	1.47	+9.4R	12R	12
2024-02	72	79%	+8.87R	+8.91R	60.28	+638.7R	2R	2
2024-03	30	30%	+0.39R	+0.41R	1.52	+11.6R	16R	7
2024-04	16	6%	-1.10R	-1.07R	0.17	-17.6R	21R	15
2024-05	43	37%	-0.22R	-0.18R	0.63	-9.3R	19R	12
2024-06	12	8%	-0.72R	-0.69R	0.37	-8.7R	10R	8
2024-07	38	11%	-0.74R	-0.71R	0.07	-28.1R	28R	20
2024-08	52	0%	-1.01R	-0.99R	0.00	-52.5R	52R	52
2024-09	71	8%	-0.81R	-0.78R	0.06	-57.2R	57R	24
2024-10	49	12%	-0.27R	-0.23R	0.74	-13.1R	39R	32
2024-11	98	71%	+4.62R	+4.64R	19.99	+452.8R	7R	4
2024-12	9	11%	-0.61R	-0.59R	0.32	-5.5R	6R	6
2025-01	38	5%	-0.99R	-0.97R	0.03	-37.6R	38R	15
2025-02	8	0%	-0.93R	-0.91R	0.00	-7.5R	7R	8
2025-03	14	0%	-1.10R	-1.07R	0.00	-15.3R	15R	14
2025-04	63	41%	+0.17R	+0.19R	1.44	+10.8R	6R	7
2025-05	65	32%	-0.15R	-0.12R	0.67	-9.8R	24R	27
2025-06	18	28%	+0.15R	+0.18R	1.20	+2.7R	7R	7
2025-07	85	74%	+1.58R	+1.61R	10.02	+133.9R	12R	11
2025-08	53	11%	+1.61R	+1.64R	2.79	+85.6R	37R	23
2025-09	59	10%	-0.69R	-0.66R	0.29	-40.8R	44R	30
2025-10	26	15%	-1.26R	-1.24R	0.16	-32.9R	33R	13
2025-11	3	0%	-1.38R	-1.35R	0.00	-4.1R	4R	3
2025-12	0	no trades
2026-01	0	no trades
2026-02	0	no trades
2026-03	0	no trades
2026-04	0	no trades
2026-05	0	no trades
2026-06	0	no trades
2026-07	0	no trades
2026-08	96	64%	+2.62R	+2.66R	11.84	+251.6R	5R	5
2026-09	102	36%	-0.02R	+0.01R	0.96	-2.1R	25R	16
2026-10	6	0%	-1.13R	-1.11R	0.00	-6.8R	7R	6

Coin	Trades	Win	Avg R net	Before costs	PF	Total R	Max DD	Losing streak
BNBfrom 2019-10	45	42%	+1.10R	+1.14R	2.87	+49.6R	12R	12
BATfrom 2019-11	44	30%	+0.10R	+0.13R	1.16	+4.5R	6R	5
ETHfrom 2019-11	43	47%	+0.83R	+0.87R	2.36	+35.7R	7R	4
BCHfrom 2020-01	42	38%	+0.23R	+0.26R	1.34	+9.6R	6R	5
LTCfrom 2019-10	42	40%	+0.08R	+0.11R	1.13	+3.1R	7R	4
BTCfrom 2019-10	41	49%	+1.00R	+1.04R	2.74	+40.8R	3R	3
ETCfrom 2019-11	41	34%	+0.65R	+0.69R	1.91	+26.8R	13R	8
IOTAfrom 2019-10	40	38%	+0.41R	+0.44R	1.63	+16.6R	10R	5
LINKfrom 2020-01	40	43%	+0.51R	+0.54R	2.04	+20.4R	8R	5
COMPfrom 2020-08	39	28%	-0.08R	-0.06R	0.90	-3.3R	10R	7
DASHfrom 2019-11	39	31%	+0.82R	+0.85R	2.23	+32.0R	7R	5
TRXfrom 2019-10	39	49%	+0.79R	+0.84R	2.67	+30.8R	6R	3
ATOMfrom 2019-10	38	39%	+0.24R	+0.27R	1.43	+9.0R	7R	3
HBARfrom 2020-02	38	37%	+1.53R	+1.56R	3.68	+58.3R	6R	5
XLMfrom 2019-10	38	42%	+1.93R	+1.97R	4.63	+73.5R	7R	3
THETAfrom 2019-10	37	41%	+1.97R	+2.00R	4.34	+72.9R	9R	7
ADAfrom 2019-10	36	44%	+1.91R	+1.94R	4.79	+68.7R	5R	5
STXfrom 2020-02	36	39%	+1.21R	+1.23R	3.25	+43.6R	9R	8
VETfrom 2019-10	36	50%	+1.63R	+1.66R	4.64	+58.7R	6R	5
XTZfrom 2019-11	36	39%	+0.75R	+0.78R	2.32	+27.0R	7R	6
AAVEfrom 2020-11	35	31%	+1.02R	+1.05R	2.45	+35.7R	14R	6
ALGOfrom 2020-02	35	43%	+1.28R	+1.31R	3.22	+44.9R	5R	4
DOGEfrom 2020-02	35	49%	+3.15R	+3.19R	7.29	+110.3R	3R	4
JSTfrom 2020-12	35	37%	+0.42R	+0.46R	1.59	+14.8R	10R	7
XRPfrom 2019-10	34	47%	+3.18R	+3.22R	7.17	+108.1R	3R	3
ZECfrom 2019-10	33	52%	+4.66R	+4.68R	13.47	+153.7R	5R	6
DCRfrom 2020-08	32	41%	+0.50R	+0.53R	1.71	+16.0R	8R	4
FETfrom 2020-02	32	38%	+2.85R	+2.88R	5.64	+91.3R	6R	5
SOLfrom 2020-09	31	55%	+2.71R	+2.74R	6.86	+84.1R	4R	4
AXSfrom 2020-12	30	40%	+0.31R	+0.33R	1.53	+9.3R	8R	6
INJfrom 2020-11	30	40%	+2.45R	+2.47R	5.52	+73.6R	7R	7
DOTfrom 2020-11	29	34%	+1.33R	+1.36R	3.05	+38.4R	5R	5
CRVfrom 2021-01	28	39%	+1.35R	+1.37R	3.37	+37.7R	9R	9
RUNEfrom 2020-11	28	50%	+1.44R	+1.47R	4.31	+40.4R	7R	7
TWTfrom 2021-02	28	36%	+0.57R	+0.61R	1.92	+16.1R	7R	6
UNIfrom 2020-11	28	36%	+1.21R	+1.23R	2.83	+33.8R	10R	7
AVAXfrom 2020-11	27	48%	+4.32R	+4.34R	10.02	+116.5R	4R	3
NEARfrom 2020-11	27	52%	+3.73R	+3.76R	7.41	+100.8R	5R	3
LDOfrom 2023-01	26	19%	-0.38R	-0.36R	0.52	-9.8R	10R	8
FILfrom 2021-01	25	36%	+1.34R	+1.37R	3.69	+33.6R	4R	4
ICPfrom 2021-08	25	28%	+0.50R	+0.53R	1.76	+12.5R	9R	7
RAYfrom 2021-08	25	44%	+3.56R	+3.58R	10.04	+88.9R	4R	3
APTfrom 2023-01	24	25%	-0.47R	-0.44R	0.41	-11.3R	15R	8
ARfrom 2021-08	24	42%	+2.28R	+2.30R	4.89	+54.7R	6R	3
CFXfrom 2021-08	24	33%	+1.16R	+1.18R	2.64	+27.9R	8R	4
GNOfrom 2021-10	24	42%	+1.16R	+1.20R	2.74	+27.9R	7R	5
GRTfrom 2021-01	24	50%	+1.81R	+1.83R	5.44	+43.4R	4R	4
NEXOfrom 2023-01	24	38%	+0.39R	+0.44R	1.53	+9.3R	5R	4
QNTfrom 2021-08	22	36%	+0.05R	+0.08R	1.07	+1.1R	5R	4
SUNfrom 2021-01	22	50%	+1.85R	+1.89R	5.07	+40.7R	5R	4
CAKEfrom 2021-03	21	43%	+1.47R	+1.49R	4.47	+30.8R	4R	4
ENSfrom 2023-01	21	29%	+0.58R	+0.61R	2.06	+12.2R	6R	8
OPfrom 2023-01	21	38%	-0.12R	-0.10R	0.83	-2.6R	11R	5
SHIBfrom 2021-08	21	43%	+3.52R	+3.55R	6.89	+73.9R	6R	5
ARBfrom 2023-04	19	37%	+0.08R	+0.11R	1.14	+1.6R	4R	4
JASMYfrom 2023-01	19	37%	+2.61R	+2.63R	5.76	+49.5R	4R	6
LUNCfrom 2023-01	19	26%	+0.34R	+0.37R	1.50	+6.4R	5R	5
JTOfrom 2024-01	18	17%	-0.59R	-0.57R	0.27	-10.7R	11R	10
PENDLEfrom 2023-10	17	41%	+1.14R	+1.16R	3.71	+19.4R	5R	8
SUIfrom 2023-10	16	56%	+0.62R	+0.64R	2.93	+9.9R	2R	3
WLDfrom 2023-10	16	38%	+0.09R	+0.11R	1.18	+1.5R	4R	3
CVXfrom 2023-01	15	53%	+1.81R	+1.84R	6.08	+27.2R	2R	2
JUPfrom 2024-03	15	27%	+0.99R	+1.01R	2.64	+14.8R	8R	10
PEPEfrom 2023-06	15	67%	+2.89R	+2.91R	10.57	+43.4R	2R	2
FLOKIfrom 2023-07	14	50%	+6.58R	+6.61R	10.77	+92.1R	4R	2
SEIfrom 2023-10	14	57%	+1.73R	+1.75R	4.79	+24.3R	3R	4
BONKfrom 2024-02	13	46%	+0.48R	+0.50R	2.23	+6.3R	3R	3
TAOfrom 2024-08	13	38%	-0.41R	-0.39R	0.40	-5.3R	6R	4
PYTHfrom 2024-02	12	33%	-0.30R	-0.28R	0.53	-3.6R	6R	5
TIAfrom 2023-12	12	8%	-0.59R	-0.57R	0.16	-7.0R	8R	11
WIFfrom 2024-03	12	42%	+0.36R	+0.38R	1.49	+4.3R	4R	4
ZROfrom 2024-07	12	17%	-0.69R	-0.67R	0.30	-8.2R	10R	6
ENAfrom 2024-05	11	36%	+1.19R	+1.21R	3.12	+13.1R	3R	3
ETHFIfrom 2024-09	11	45%	+0.13R	+0.15R	1.27	+1.5R	2R	2
STRKfrom 2024-03	11	18%	-0.52R	-0.50R	0.39	-5.7R	9R	6
RENDERfrom 2024-08	10	30%	+0.20R	+0.22R	1.39	+2.0R	4R	5
SYRUPfrom 2025-06	10	0%	-0.89R	-0.87R	0.00	-8.9R	9R	10
EIGENfrom 2024-11	9	44%	-0.39R	-0.37R	0.46	-3.5R	6R	4
KAIAfrom 2024-11	9	33%	+0.38R	+0.41R	1.61	+3.5R	4R	3
POLfrom 2024-11	9	33%	+0.06R	+0.08R	1.12	+0.5R	3R	2
Sfrom 2025-02	9	11%	-0.68R	-0.66R	0.12	-6.1R	7R	8
KMNOfrom 2025-06	6	50%	+0.77R	+0.80R	2.68	+4.6R	3R	3
ONDOfrom 2025-05	6	33%	+0.19R	+0.21R	1.34	+1.1R	3R	3
PENGUfrom 2025-01	6	50%	+0.96R	+0.98R	2.68	+5.8R	1R	1
VIRTUALfrom 2025-05	6	33%	-0.24R	-0.22R	0.59	-1.5R	3R	3
TRUMPfrom 2025-04	5	20%	-0.52R	-0.49R	0.31	-2.6R	4R	4
MORPHOfrom 2025-10	3	33%	-0.11R	-0.09R	0.81	-0.3R	1R	1
PUMPfrom 2026-08	3	0%	-0.50R	-0.49R	0.00	-1.5R	2R	3
WLFIfrom 2025-09	3	0%	-1.52R	-1.48R	0.00	-4.6R	5R	3
AEROfrom 2026-08	2	0%	-0.31R	-0.29R	0.00	-0.6R	1R	2
ASTERfrom 2026-08	2	50%	+0.63R	+0.70R	3.72	+1.3R	0R	1
FFfrom 2025-10	2	50%	+3.78R	+3.80R	6.28	+7.6R	1R	1
GRAMfrom 2026-08	2	0%	-0.80R	-0.76R	0.00	-1.6R	2R	2
KITEfrom 2026-08	2	50%	-0.18R	-0.15R	0.68	-0.3R	1R	1
SKYfrom 2026-08	2	100%	+0.44R	+0.47R	—	+0.9R	0R	0
XPLfrom 2026-08	2	50%	+0.57R	+0.61R	2.23	+1.1R	1R	1
ZAMAfrom 2026-08	2	50%	+0.80R	+0.82R	4.50	+1.6R	0R	1
METfrom 2026-08	1	0%	-0.63R	-0.61R	0.00	-0.6R	1R	1

Year	Trades	Start	End	Change
2019	7	500 USDT	503.34 USDT	+0.7%
2020	71	503.34 USDT	1,084 USDT	+115.3%
2021	75	1,084 USDT	3,223 USDT	+197.4%
2022	5	3,223 USDT	3,175 USDT	-1.5%
2023	77	3,175 USDT	5,118 USDT	+61.2%
2024	102	5,118 USDT	7,432 USDT	+45.2%
2025	93	7,432 USDT	13,643 USDT	+83.6%
2026	24	13,643 USDT	12,803 USDT	-6.2%

Take profit	Target reached	Won	Avg net R	Total R	PF
As tested	—	17%	-0.69R	-8R	0.30
One target at 0.5R	58%	58%	-0.20R	-2R	0.58
One target at 1R	33%	33%	-0.54R	-6R	0.38
One target at 1.5R	25%	25%	-0.53R	-6R

Entry (UTC)	Coin	Entry	Stop	Target 10R	RRR	Breakout %	Exit	Net R	Net %	As tested
2026-08-20 00:00HB	ZRO LONG	0.8590	0.7875	1.574	10.00	0.23	Trailing stop, profit 09-11 00:00	+2.24R	+18.61%	+2.24R
2025-10-04 00:00	ZRO LONG	2.417	2.152	5.072	10.00	2.42	Trailing stop, loss 10-11 00:00	-2.35R

Smart Trend: the 20-Day Breakout Without Its Losing Patterns

> strend_verdict

Full period (headline)

2023 to date

> results_by_year · after costs

> equity_curve · cumulative R over time, every trade at equal risk

> daily_scan · top 100 coins · 1 buy · 0 filtered · 3 near · 4 upper half · 92 lower half · updated 2026-10-24 22:05 UTC

> breakdown

Smart Trend vs the unfiltered breakout and each rule alone (2019-2022 vs 2023-2026)

The rules, exactly as tested

What the filter does and does not do

Use it responsibly

Frequently asked questions

Related guides

Held-back test (Jul–Oct 2026)

Validation periods

> active_signals · fresh BUYs after an AI review · the bot closes them at a daily close below the trailing stop

> strend_performance · 5 signals

> strend_active · 4

> strend_history · 1

> smart_trend_vs_unfiltered · same 99 coins · 2019-10-16 → today · after costs

> what_winners_and_losers_had_in_common · 3,297 unfiltered trades

> walk_forward · rules picked only from earlier years

By stop distance

By time in the trade

> money_calculator · what would my USDT have become?

> strend_backtest_history · 12 trades · ZRO · one target at 10R · newest first