BTC analysis · best setup ranked by profit · 8 TradingView setups backtested
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: What Wins, What Fails, What to Check First
The best setup we found is also the one that made the most money: of 17 BTC rules tested, a 3% band around the 200-day SMA that sells only while the SMA falls turned $1 into $24.71 since 2018 (held: $9.80) and passed every check set before its test. Below it: every rule ranked by profit, then the first study, eight TradingView setups on every daily candle from 2018-03-25 to 2026-10-20 with the same 2R bracket on 684 trades.
★ Our best setup · #1 for profit of 17 rules · passed 9 of 9 checks
Max profit: the 200-day SMA, a 3% band, and sells only while the SMA falls
Spot BTC, daily closes, no leverage. In the market 66% of the days and in cash through most of the 2018, 2022 and 2025–26 crashes; that is where its edge over holding comes from.
Buy
A daily close more than 3% above the 200-day simple moving average. Buy at that close.
close > ta.sma(close, 200) * 1.03
Sell
A daily close more than 3% below it while the 200-day SMA is lower than 20 days ago. While the SMA still rises: hold.
200-day SMA rising: $72,898 now vs $71,462 20 days ago (+2.0%). No sell while it rises, even on a close below the sell level; that is what stops the sell-and-rebuy round trips.
Decided only on the daily close (00:00 UTC = 05:00 PKT). The levels move a little every day with the average. Spot BTC, no leverage. Not financial advice. Full test, every trade and the Pine Script →
○ connecting…BTC $83,028IN since 20 Aug 2026 at $73,025 (+13.7%) · sell below $70,509 once the SMA falls200-day SMA $72,690 (rising +1.9% vs 20 days ago)
|time|price20 Oct 2025 – 19 Nov 2026
20 Oct 2026 · BTC $83,028 · 200-day SMA $72,690 (+14.2%) · buy line $74,871 · sell line $70,509 · SMA rising: hold IN the market · trade bought 2026-08-20 at $73,025, still holding
drag to pan · drag the price scale to zoom the price · pinch, ctrl + scroll or ＋/－ to zoom · double-click resets╌ 200-day SMA━ SMA falling: sells allowed┈ buy line +3% / sell line −3%▲ buy▼ sellhollow = made by the daily closes after the backtest · shade = holding (green won, red lost) · levels from closed days, like the card
$1 since 2018
$24.71
held $9.80 · 2.52 BTC per BTC held
Trades won
71.4%
7 trades · +92.9% a trade
A year
45.4%
held 30.5% · profit factor 26.83
Worst drawdown
-54.3%
held -76.6%
━ $1 in the rule, after costs╌ $1 bought and heldlog scale, weekly
What your money would be now
Following the trigger
$24,712
Buying and holding
$9,802
From the first weekly close of 2018 (2018-03-25) to 2026-10-20, after 0.15% costs on every trade. The trigger ends ahead of holding when started in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024, 2025, 2026, and behind when started in 2023: it wins by dodging crashes and loses some of every rally.
17 BTC rules from five rounds of tests, ranked by what $1 became on Binance BTC/USDT from 2018-03-25 to 2026-10-20, after 0.1% fee and 0.05% slippage on every buy and sell. Each rule's checks were written before its run. The 2012–2017 column is Coin Metrics data no rule was designed on.
Rounds 2–5 are trend rules that hold BTC while the trend lasts; round 6 is published high-win-rate rules. Checks: five in round 2, seven in round 3, eight in round 4, nine in rounds 5 and 6 (each name links to its test). Long-only spot, decided and filled on the daily close.
Why not something that made even more? Hash Ribbons, hold 1 year comes second (×15.96), but its worst fall was -74.1%, about as deep as holding (-76.6%), and it passed 7 of 9 checks. The plain 200-day rule with a 150-day SMA instead made ×25.26, but 150 was only a neighbour setting in round 2: switching to it now would be picking the winner after seeing the results. The macro overlays on the Tops & bottoms tab made more since 2018 on Coin Metrics closes (×36.08 against ×7.73 for the plain band on the same closes) but far less in 2012–2017 (×461 against ×1,440), so they failed the test set before their run.
What max profit costs
A -54.3% drawdown on the way, and a worst trade of -14.6%. It sells bear markets weeks after the top, because the 200-day SMA turns down late.
It lags in bull markets: 2023–2026 alone it made ×4.48 while holding made ×5.00. No trend rule we tested beat holding in that run.
Leverage does not fix that. At 2× (rebalanced daily, before funding) the same trades made ×84.73 with a -85% fall; at 3× only ×38.22 with a -97% fall.
It is the fifth look at 2018–2026 BTC data, so the 2012–2017 and 8-coin results on the best-trigger tab are the stronger evidence. Not financial advice.
Round 1: eight TradingView setups with a 2R target
Where the search started. The fixed 2R target cut BTC's trends short, so none of these made real money; what they show is what the indicators read before wins and losses, and which pre-trigger conditions still worked after 2023.
·ADX (14) ≥ 20 with +DI above −DI (false)not proven
·Trigger volume ≥ 1.2× its 20-day average (false)not proven
✓RSI (14) between 50 and 75 (true)not proven
✓Bollinger width below its 1-year median (last 10 days) (true)not proven
·MACD histogram above zero (false)not proven
None of the 8 long conditions kept its edge in 2023–2026, so this column describes the market; it does not raise the odds. Every long trigger since 2018: 38.5% won (283 trades).
Short checklist · score 2 of 5
·Price below the 200-day SMA (false)held up
·200-day SMA falling over 20 days (false)held up
·Close below the 20-week SMA (false)not proven
✓ADX (14) ≥ 20 with −DI above +DI (true)held up
·Trigger volume ≥ 1.2× its 20-day average (false)not proven
·RSI (14) between 25 and 50 (false)held up
✓Bollinger width below its 1-year median (last 10 days) (true)held up
✓MACD histogram below zero (true)not proven
Score = how many of the 5 conditions that held up are true. Short triggers at a score of 2 since 2018: 21.7% won, -0.42R a trade (60 trades).
Trigger watch: what each setup needs at the next daily close
Average result per trade in R after fees (1R = the 2×ATR stop). Solid bars are 2018–2022, where the checklist was found; outlined bars are 2023–2026, which it never saw. A real edge shows up in both.
■ discovery, 2018–2022□ check, 2023–2026average R per trade after fees (1R = the 2×ATR stop)
Setup
Side
Trades
Won
Avg R
Profit factor
2018–22
2023–26
4h candles
EMA 50/200 cross
long
7
43%
+0.40R
1.91
-0.02R (4)
+0.97R (3)
+0.40R (48)
EMA 50/200 cross
short
7
14%
-0.69R
0.12
-0.68R (5)
-0.73R (2)
+0.25R (47)
MACD (12, 26, 9) signal crossboth periods +
long
77
39%
+0.12R
1.20
+0.20R (38)
+0.03R (39)
-0.03R (508)
MACD (12, 26, 9) signal cross
short
81
27%
-0.23R
0.69
-0.08R (43)
-0.40R (38)
-0.10R (500)
RSI (14) 30/70 reclaim
long
25
44%
-0.02R
0.96
-0.04R (15)
+0.00R (10)
-0.10R (215)
RSI (14) 30/70 reclaim
short
49
20%
-0.45R
0.45
-0.51R (28)
-0.36R (21)
-0.11R (272)
Bollinger squeeze breakout
long
38
32%
-0.08R
0.88
+0.08R (19)
-0.25R (19)
-0.01R (208)
Bollinger squeeze breakoutboth periods +
short
31
48%
+0.38R
1.72
+0.57R (18)
+0.12R (13)
-0.06R (208)
Donchian 20 breakout
long
74
35%
+0.03R
1.04
-0.05R (43)
+0.13R (31)
+0.04R (375)
Donchian 20 breakout
short
46
41%
+0.08R
1.14
+0.30R (25)
-0.17R (21)
+0.02R (284)
Supertrend (10, 3) flip
long
36
36%
+0.06R
1.09
+0.14R (18)
-0.03R (18)
-0.00R (216)
Supertrend (10, 3) flipboth periods +
short
34
41%
+0.10R
1.17
+0.18R (17)
+0.03R (17)
+0.09R (214)
Liquidity sweep reclaim (SMC)both periods +
long
62
37%
+0.02R
1.03
+0.03R (35)
+0.01R (27)
+0.01R (421)
Liquidity sweep reclaim (SMC)
short
84
26%
-0.26R
0.65
-0.28R (46)
-0.24R (38)
-0.17R (461)
200-day SMA reclaim
long
19
47%
+0.31R
1.58
-0.20R (9)
+0.77R (10)
-0.04R (149)
200-day SMA reclaim
short
14
43%
+0.16R
1.27
+0.49R (7)
-0.17R (7)
+0.11R (142)
Break-even win rate with a 2R target is about 35% after fees. 4h candles = the same rules with lookbacks counted in 4-hour bars (a faster version, 2017–2026), shown as a robustness check only.
Winning setups: indicator logic and pre-trigger signs
4 combinations made money in both periods: MACD (12, 26, 9) signal cross long (+0.20R then +0.03R), Bollinger squeeze breakout short (+0.57R then +0.12R), Supertrend (10, 3) flip short (+0.18R then +0.03R), Liquidity sweep reclaim (SMC) long (+0.03R then +0.01R). The strongest is the Bollinger squeeze short: 31 trades, 48% won, +0.38R a trade. A tight band followed by a close under the lower band was BTC's most reliable downside move: compression first, then the release.
The biggest winning runs below are measured as how far price moved in R before the stop would have been hit (within 120 days), ignoring the target. Their common thread is the structure, not one indicator value: most were range breakouts after a squeeze (band width in the lowest 20% of its year within the 10 days before) or trend continuations above a rising 200-day SMA, and most had trigger volume above its 20-day average.
Trigger close
Setup
Close
RSI
ADX
Vol ×
BB width pct
vs 200-day
Ran to
Market structure
2020-10-12
Supertrend (10, 3) flip long
$11,528
66.5
18.1
1.26
29
+19.6%
55.9R
Range breakout after compression
2019-03-29
Donchian 20 breakout long
$4,103
65.1
11.3
1.18
6
-12.8%
54.5R
Range breakout after compression
2020-09-15
MACD signal cross long
$10,785
49.5
25.3
0.99
62
+18.2%
34.5R
Trend continuation
2019-04-02
200-day SMA reclaim long
$4,857
87.3
18.1
4.39
51
+4.2%
33.9R
Range breakout after compression
2020-11-12
Donchian 20 breakout long
$16,292
77
53.8
1.34
82
+53%
29.5R
Trend continuation
2023-01-08
Bollinger squeeze breakout long
$17,128
57.8
15.4
0.86
1
-12.5%
23.3R
Range breakout after compression
2020-12-16
MACD signal cross long
$21,336
70.8
26.7
1.58
52
+74.6%
22.8R
Trend continuation
2019-02-08
Bollinger squeeze breakout long
$3,659
57.2
17.8
1.94
8
-32.9%
21.6R
Counter-trend move
2020-07-22
Bollinger squeeze breakout long
$9,518
59.8
17.1
1.28
3
+11.1%
21.6R
Range breakout after compression
2019-05-03
Donchian 20 breakout long
$5,773
73.8
40.6
1.73
31
+29.5%
21.3R
Counter-trend move
2023-10-03
EMA 50/200 cross long
$27,426
58.4
19.6
1.03
16
-2.2%
16.1R
Range breakout after compression
2023-09-19
Bollinger squeeze breakout long
$27,210
59.1
17.6
1.24
16
-1.9%
15.5R
Range breakout after compression
The hard part: the same readings show up on losing longs. Median RSI, ADX and volume on the trigger candle were almost identical for long wins and long losses, so no single indicator value separates a good long trigger from a bad one. Shorts are different: losing shorts fired while BTC was still 10.1% above its 200-day SMA and up 10.8% over the month; winning shorts fired below the line (-1.1%) after a flat month.
Median reading on the trigger candle: wins against losses
Indicator
Long wins (109)
Long losses (174)
Short wins (87)
Short losses (215)
RSI (14)
56.3
55.65
48.4
56
ADX (14)
25.6
27.75
26.9
32.3
Volume vs 20-day average
1.24×
1.24×
1.2×
1.19×
Bollinger width percentile (1 year)
52
44.5
38
56
Close vs 200-day SMA
1.7%
1.95%
-1.1%
10.1%
Change over the last 30 days
-0.6%
-0.75%
2.7%
10.8%
Below the 1-year high
-30.8%
-30.2%
-31.5%
-21.2%
Losing setups and fakeouts: warning signs
Every loss was put in one bucket by fixed rules, checked in this order: stop-hunt (stopped out, then price reached the target within 20 days), fakeout (the close fell back inside the old range within 3 days), stalled (60-day time stop), against the 200-day trend, no volume (trigger volume below its 20-day average), else trend reversal.
Why the loss happened
Long losses
Short losses
Warning sign before the trigger
Against the 200-day trend
60
121
Long below the 200-day SMA, or short above it. The most common short loss by far: shorting dips in a bull market.
Trend reversal
40
40
None of the other signs was there: the move started, then turned. Nothing on the trigger candle warned.
Fakeout
35
27
The close fell back inside the old range within 3 days. Mostly Donchian and squeeze breakouts and 200-day reclaims.
No volume behind the move
19
19
Trigger candle volume below its 20-day average: nobody followed.
Stop-hunt
14
7
Price wicked through the 2×ATR stop, then went on to the target within 20 days.
Stalled (time stop)
6
1
No stop and no target in 60 days: the trade went nowhere.
Examples of each kind of loss, spread over the whole history:
Every setup triggers on a daily close (00:00 UTC) and the trade is entered at the next open. Stop 2×ATR(14) below the entry (above it for shorts), target 4×ATR(14), time stop 60 days, 0.1% fee per side. If a candle touches both stop and target, the stop counts.
Close crosses above the upper band while band width sat in its lowest 20% of the year in the last 5 days
Same, close below the lower band
ta.lowest(bbwPct, 5) <= 20 and ta.crossover(close, bbUpper)
Donchian 20 breakout
Close above the highest high of the previous 20 days
Close below the lowest low of the previous 20 days
close > ta.highest(high, 20)[1] and close[1] <= ta.highest(high, 20)[2]
Supertrend (10, 3) flip
Supertrend (ATR 10, factor 3) turns up
Supertrend turns down
dir < 0 and dir[1] > 0 // [line, dir] = ta.supertrend(3, 10)
Liquidity sweep reclaim
Low pierces the 20-day low, the candle closes back above it (stop-hunt reclaim)
High pierces the 20-day high, closes back below it
low < ta.lowest(low, 20)[1] and close > ta.lowest(low, 20)[1]
200-day SMA reclaim
Close crosses above the 200-day SMA
Close crosses below the 200-day SMA
ta.crossover(close, ta.sma(close, 200))
The pre-trigger checklist, tested
Eight conditions were written down before the test, measured on the trigger candle and mirrored for shorts. A condition counted only if, on 2018–2022 trades, the win rate with it beat the win rate without it by at least 5 points (20+ trades each way) and the gap stayed positive in 2023–2026. Trades from several setups on the same day were counted once.
Short triggers: 5 of 8 held up
■ discovery, 2018–2022□ check, 2023–2026┆ +5 pts = the bar set before the test
Short win rate by checklist score (how many of the 5 were true)
The score helps at the ends: with all 5 true, shorts won 52.6% and 50% (only 19 + 8 trades); with none true, 6.9% and 19.2%. The middle scores were weaker in 2023–2026 than before, so only a full score is worth acting on.
Long triggers: 0 of 8 held up
■ discovery, 2018–2022□ check, 2023–2026┆ +5 pts = the bar set before the test
Two long conditions looked useful in 2018–2022 (close above the 20-week SMA +10.1 points, MACD histogram above zero +10.1 points) and then lost their edge in 2023–2026 (-7.9 and -0.4 points). In 2023–2026 long triggers below the 200-day SMA even won more often than those above it (46.2% vs 36.3%). The honest reading is that no long checklist item is proven.
The cheat sheet
Before a short trigger (5 of 5 = the only score above break-even in both periods)
Price below the 200-day SMA
200-day SMA falling over 20 days
ADX (14) ≥ 20 with −DI above +DI
RSI (14) between 25 and 50
Bollinger width below its 1-year median (last 10 days)
Then wait for one of the 8 short triggers on a daily close. Best of them: the Bollinger squeeze breakdown.
Before a long trigger (context, not proof)
Is there a squeeze? Band width in the lowest 20% of its year makes a breakout a real release, not a chase.
Is the trigger candle volume above its 20-day average? Most "no volume" losses had it below.
Is the 20-day low an obvious stop? Stops there get swept; give the stop 2×ATR.
Prefer the long setups that made money in both periods: MACD (12, 26, 9) signal cross (+0.12R a trade), Liquidity sweep reclaim (SMC) (+0.02R a trade). Both edges are thin.
None of these raised the long win rate in both periods. They describe the market; they don't make the trade likely.
Never
Short while price is above the 200-day SMA. 121 of 215 short losses did exactly that.
Read one indicator as a signal. Long wins and long losses had the same median RSI, ADX and volume.
Expect a high win rate. With a 2R target no setup won half its trades; the best won 48%.
Pine Script: the triggers and the short score on TradingView
Paste into TradingView's Pine Editor and add it to a BINANCE:BTCUSDT daily chart. It marks every trigger, shows the short score on the last candle and has two alerts. TradingView's percent rank counts the previous 365 values, so a band-width reading can differ by a point from the study.
//@version=6
indicator("DanioX BTC triggers + checklist", overlay = true)
// Rules from daniox.com/bitcoin-analysis. Use on BINANCE:BTCUSDT, 1D. Signals are on the daily close; the backtest
// entered at the next open with a 2 x ATR(14) stop and a 4 x ATR(14) target (2R), 60-day time stop.
ema50 = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
sma200 = ta.sma(close, 200)
[macdLine, sigLine, hist] = ta.macd(close, 12, 26, 9)
rsi14 = ta.rsi(close, 14)
[bbMid, bbUp, bbLo] = ta.bb(close, 20, 2)
bbwPct = ta.percentrank((bbUp - bbLo) / bbMid, 365)
[diPlus, diMinus, adx14] = ta.dmi(14, 14)
[stLine, stDir] = ta.supertrend(3, 10) // stDir < 0 = uptrend
hh20 = ta.highest(high, 20)[1]
ll20 = ta.lowest(low, 20)[1]
atr14 = ta.atr(14)
// The 8 trigger points
squeeze = ta.lowest(bbwPct, 5) <= 20
longTrig = ta.crossover(ema50, ema200) or ta.crossover(macdLine, sigLine) or ta.crossover(rsi14, 30) or
(squeeze and ta.crossover(close, bbUp)) or (close > hh20 and close[1] <= hh20[1]) or
(stDir < 0 and stDir[1] > 0) or (low < ll20 and close > ll20) or ta.crossover(close, sma200)
shortTrig = ta.crossunder(ema50, ema200) or ta.crossunder(macdLine, sigLine) or ta.crossunder(rsi14, 70) or
(squeeze and ta.crossunder(close, bbLo)) or (close < ll20 and close[1] >= ll20[1]) or
(stDir > 0 and stDir[1] < 0) or (high > hh20 and close < hh20) or ta.crossunder(close, sma200)
// The 5 short conditions that held up in 2023-2026 (none of the long ones did)
shortScore = (close < sma200 ? 1 : 0) + (sma200 < sma200[20] ? 1 : 0) +
(adx14 >= 20 and diMinus > diPlus ? 1 : 0) + (rsi14 >= 25 and rsi14 <= 50 ? 1 : 0) +
(ta.lowest(bbwPct, 10)[1] <= 50 ? 1 : 0)
plotshape(longTrig, "Long trigger", shape.triangleup, location.belowbar, color.lime, size = size.tiny)
plotshape(shortTrig, "Short trigger", shape.triangledown, location.abovebar, shortScore == 5 ? color.red : color.gray, size = size.tiny)
plot(close + 4 * atr14, "Long target (4 ATR)", color.new(color.lime, 70), style = plot.style_circles)
plot(close - 2 * atr14, "Long stop (2 ATR)", color.new(color.red, 70), style = plot.style_circles)
var label info = na
if barstate.islast
label.delete(info)
info := label.new(bar_index, high, "short score " + str.tostring(shortScore) + "/5", style = label.style_label_down, color = color.new(color.gray, 30), textcolor = color.white)
alertcondition(longTrig, "BTC long trigger", "BTC long trigger on the daily close")
alertcondition(shortTrig and shortScore == 5, "BTC short trigger, score 5/5", "BTC short trigger with all 5 short conditions true")
Historical periods analysed: Binance BTC/USDT daily candles 2018-03-25 to 2026-10-20 (2018–2022 discovery, 2023–2026 check), 4h candles from Aug 2017 for the robustness check, and Coin Metrics daily closes from July 2010 for the halving cycles.
Cross-check against TradingView
On 2026-10-21 06:29 UTC TradingView's technicals page for BINANCE:BTCUSDT (1D, price $82,722) showed the values below; ours come from the same Binance candles, computed a few minutes later (2026-10-21 06:42 UTC, price $82,697).
Indicator
TradingView
DanioX
RSI (14)
51.29
51.25
ADX (14)
18.76
18.76
MACD level (12, 26)
71.28
70.07
EMA (20)
82,624.19
82,622.36
EMA (50)
80,761.51
80,760.65
SMA (50)
81,715.21
81,714.73
EMA (200)
76,105.92
76,105.69
SMA (200)
72,767.09
72,766.96
Return, 1 month
1.95%
1.87%
Return, 3 months
25.18%
24.25%
Return, 6 months
5.76%
8.33%
Return, Year to date
-5.57%
-5.65%
Return, 1 year
-25.12%
-25.18%
The indicators agree to within 0.1%, so the formulas match TradingView's. The returns agree for 1 month, year to date and 1 year; 3 and 6 months differ because TradingView anchors them to a different starting candle, and BTC can move several percent in a day.
How the test was done, and its limits
The rules, the bracket, the eight checklist conditions and the pass bar were written before any result was seen. Nothing was tuned afterwards; the script and its protocol are kept with the data (2026-10-21).
One trade per setup and side at a time. Entries at the next daily open, exits at the stop, the target or the close of day 60.
It is one asset: 684 trades in total, a few dozen per setup. A 10-point difference in win rate on 30 trades can be luck. The 2023–2026 check is the part to trust; the full-period numbers include the data the checklist was found on.
A fixed 2R target suits mean-reverting moves and cuts trend trades short. Trend-following with a trailing stop is tested separately on DanioX's Trend Breakout page.
Volume is Binance spot volume only, a fraction of all BTC trading. Funding, open interest and on-chain flows are not in this test.
Frequently asked questions
Which Bitcoin setup made the most money?+
Of the 17 BTC rules we tested, the most profitable was the 200-day SMA with a 3% band: buy on a daily close more than 3% above the 200-day SMA, sell on a daily close more than 3% below it, but only while the SMA is lower than 20 days ago. On Binance BTC/USDT from 2018-03-25 to 2026-10-20, after costs, $1 became $24.71 against $9.80 for buying and holding; 71.4% of its 7 trades won and its worst drawdown was -54.3% (holding: -76.6%). It also passed all 9 checks set before its test, including BTC 2012-2017 and 8 other coins.
Can leverage make the best setup more profitable?+
On paper, but not in a way you could sit through. Re-priced at 2× (rebalanced every day, before funding fees) the same trades turn $1 into $85, but the worst fall becomes -85%; at 3× they make less, $38, with a -97% fall. Funding on perpetual futures would cut both. The test, and the signal, are spot only.
Which indicator predicts Bitcoin best?+
None of the eight TradingView setups tested here predicts BTC reliably on its own. On 3,352 daily candles (2018-03-25 to 2026-10-20) with the same 2R bracket on every trade, only 4 of the 16 setup-and-side combinations made money in both 2018-2022 and 2023-2026: MACD (12, 26, 9) signal cross long (+0.12R a trade), Bollinger squeeze breakout short (+0.38R a trade), Supertrend (10, 3) flip short (+0.10R a trade), Liquidity sweep reclaim (SMC) long (+0.02R a trade). The edges are small and the samples are a few dozen trades each.
What should I check before a BTC trade triggers?+
For shorts, five conditions on the trigger candle raised the win rate in 2018-2022 and still did in 2023-2026: price below the 200-day sma; 200-day sma falling over 20 days; adx (14) ≥ 20 with −di above +di; rsi (14) between 25 and 50; bollinger width below its 1-year median (last 10 days). With all five true, short triggers won 52.6% (19 trades) and then 50% (8 trades); with none true they won 6.9% and 19.2%. For longs, none of the eight conditions kept its edge: the conditions that looked best before 2023 (weekly trend up, MACD histogram above zero) stopped working after it.
Why do most Bitcoin breakouts fail?+
Over all long triggers, 38.5% reached the 2R target before the stop. The losses broke down as: against the 200-day trend 60, trend reversal 40, fakeout 35, no volume behind the move 19, stop-hunt 14, stalled (time stop) 6. A fakeout here means the close fell back inside the old range within three days; a stop-hunt means the stop was hit and price still reached the target within 20 days.
Did you use TradingView data?+
The candles are Binance BTC/USDT, the same feed as TradingView's BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart. Every indicator follows TradingView's built-in formula, and on 2026-10-21 06:29 UTC our RSI, ADX, MACD, EMA and SMA values matched TradingView's own technicals page for that symbol to within 0.1% (RSI 51.25 vs 51.29, SMA 200 72766.96 vs 72767.09).
Is this financial advice?+
No. It is a historical test on one asset with small samples, and past results do not guarantee future ones. Treat the checklist as a way to read the market, not as a signal service.