BTC analysis · round 6 · published high win-rate rules
The Most Winning Bitcoin Trigger: Published Rules, Tested
We searched the published research for Bitcoin triggers known for winning often and tested four with their published settings, on BTC since 2012, ETH and 8 coins no rule was built on. Most winning: Connors RSI(2), 72.5% of 69 trades won. Small wins, though: for winning and big profit, the best trigger still leads (71.4% won, $1 → $24.71).
> btc_rsi2 · most winning rule · daily close 2026-10-23 · live from Binance
OUT: waiting for a dip
RSI(2)
21.2 (buy below 10)
Close vs 200-day SMA
$81,189 above $72,898
Uptrend filter
on: dips can be bought
Sell rule
first close above the 5-day SMA
Decided only on the daily close (00:00 UTC = 05:00 PKT); the page re-reads Binance every hour. Spot BTC, no leverage. Not financial advice.
Buy trigger
A daily close above the 200-day SMA with the 2-day RSI below 10 (a sharp dip in an uptrend). Buy at that close.
close > ta.sma(close, 200) and ta.rsi(close, 2) < 10
Sell trigger
The first daily close above the 5-day SMA (the bounce). Sell at that close. No stop: Connors reported that stops hurt this rule.
close > ta.sma(close, 5)
Trades won
72.5%
69 trades since 2018 · 2012–17 67.9%
Average trade
+0.74%
median +1.32% · profit factor 1.57
$1 since 2018
$1.53
held $9.8 · best trigger $24.71
Time in BTC
11%
worst drawdown -34.3% · held -76.6%
Read this first · RSI(2) wins often because it buys sharp dips in an uptrend and sells the first bounce. The wins are small and it is in BTC only 11% of the time, so it made far less than holding. It passed 8 of 9 checks and failed only "better Sharpe than holding". Use it as a dip-buying rule beside the best trigger, not instead of it.
Winning often is not the same as making money
Every rule from rounds 5 and 6 on one chart: how many trades won against what $1 became since 2018. RSI(2) sits far right and low; the trend rules make the money because their few winners are huge.
Up = more money since 2018 (log scale), right = more trades won. Hover a dot for the numbers.
Four published rules, nine checks
Settings are the published ones; neighbours are the authors' own variants. Checks were written before the run. Binance BTC/USDT 2018-03-25 to 2026-10-20, 0.1% fee + 0.05% slippage on every buy and sell.
Rule
W1
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
P6
P7
P8
Won
Trades
Avg trade
$1 →
Worst fall
Sharpe
In BTC
Connors RSI(2) dip in an uptrend8/9 · most winning
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✗ failed
72.5%
69
+0.74%
×1.53
-34.3%
0.35
11%
Hash Ribbons, hold 1 year7/9
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✓ passed
n/a
n/a
✓ passed
66.7%
6
+123.28%
×15.96
-74.1%
0.9
68%
Turn of the month3/9
✗ failed
✗ failed
✓ passed
✓ passed
✗ failed
✗ failed
✗ failed
✓ passed
✗ failed
59.2%
103
+1.29%
×2.96
-46.7%
0.6
26%
Turn of the month, only above the close 22 days ago5/9
P1 = Average trade above zero in 2018–22, 2023–26 and 2012–17
P2 = Profit factor at least 1.5
P3 = Smaller worst drawdown than holding BTC
P4 = Both neighbour settings: average trade above zero and at least 55% won
P5 = At most 2 losing calendar years 2018–2026
P6 = ETH 2018–today: average trade above zero and at least 55% won
P7 = Average trade above zero on at least 5 of 8 coins never used before (DOGE, LINK, ATOM, DOT, SOL, AVAX, ALGO, VET)
P8 = Higher Sharpe than buying and holding BTC (2018–today)
Hash Ribbons uses Bitcoin's own hash rate, so it cannot be run on ETH or other coins (n/a counts as not passed).
Failed checks: Connors RSI(2) dip in an uptrend P8; Hash Ribbons, hold 1 year P6, P7; Turn of the month W1, P1, P4, P5, P6, P8; Turn of the month, only above the close 22 days ago W1, P5, P6, P8. No rule passed all nine, so there is no automatic pick; RSI(2) is shown as the live rule because it won most often and failed only the Sharpe check.
RSI(2) in every test
Test
Trades
Won
Avg trade
Profit factor
$1 →
Held
BTC 2012–2017 (Coin Metrics closes)
53
67.9%
+1.39%
1.67
×1.75
×2,629
BTC 2018-03-25 – 2022
27
77.8%
+0.41%
1.2
×1.04
×1.95
BTC 2023 – 2026-10-20
42
69%
+0.96%
2.19
×1.46
×5.00
ETH 2018-03-25 – 2026-10-20
64
67.2%
+0.89%
1.51
×1.59
×4.68
DOGE/USDT (never used before)
52
53.8%
+7.45%
3.31
×3.84
×21.15
LINK/USDT (never used before)
43
60.5%
-0.64%
0.82
×0.58
×25.19
ATOM/USDT (never used before)
45
62.2%
+2.29%
1.78
×2.15
×0.46
DOT/USDT (never used before)
20
35%
-1.11%
0.72
×0.75
×0.37
SOL/USDT (never used before)
45
60%
+0.44%
1.2
×1.11
×32.30
AVAX/USDT (never used before)
30
50%
+0.47%
1.13
×0.99
×1.83
ALGO/USDT (never used before)
35
60%
-1.36%
0.68
×0.42
×0.05
VET/USDT (never used before)
46
71.7%
+1.97%
2.05
×2.22
×0.34
Average trade above zero on 5 of 8 new coins; won at least 60% on 5 of 8.
$1 in RSI(2) against holding and the best trigger
━ $1 in the rule, after costs╌ $1 bought and held┈ best triggerlog scale, weekly
Hash Ribbons: the most money of the four, and why it is not the pick
Buy when miners stop capitulating (30-day hash-rate average back above the 60-day) and the 10-day price SMA is above the 20-day, then hold a year (Capriole gives no mechanical exit; its own stats run to the next cycle top, which needs hindsight). $1 became ×15.96 since 2018 with 66.7% of 6 trades won, and 100% of 4 in 2012–2017. But the worst drawdown was -74.1% (holding: -76.6%), the 2021 buy ran into the 2022 crash (-60% that year), and it can only be tested on Bitcoin.
Buy
Sell (a year later)
Result
2019-01-10 $3,586
2020-01-10 $8,197
+127.9%
2020-04-24 $7,505
2021-04-24 $50,048
+564.9%
2021-08-07 $44,573
2022-08-07 $23,174
-48.2%
2022-08-19 $20,834
2023-08-19 $26,100
+24.9%
2024-07-23 $65,936
2025-07-23 $118,756
+79.6%
2026-01-04 $91,530
holding $83,028
-9.4% open
Year by year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
RSI(2)
cash
-10%
+25%
-8%
cash
+22%
+17%
+1%
+2%
Hash Ribbons
cash
+100%
+338%
+79%
-60%
+58%
+42%
+27%
-9%
Turn of the month
+8%
+29%
+41%
+77%
+2%
+15%
-6%
-7%
-17%
Best trigger
cash
+48%
+181%
+42%
-7%
+102%
+103%
-3%
+14%
Buy and hold
-56%
+94%
+302%
+60%
-64%
+156%
+121%
-6%
-5%
All 69 RSI(2) trades
Buy (RSI(2) < 10)
Sell (close > 5-day SMA)
Days
Result after costs
2026-10-07 $83,322
2026-10-11 $83,773
4
+0.24%
2026-09-10 $76,569
2026-09-14 $78,189
4
+1.81%
2025-10-16 $108,194
2025-10-19 $108,643
3
+0.11%
2025-10-10 $112,775
2025-10-13 $115,166
3
+1.81%
2025-09-22 $112,651
2025-09-28 $112,164
6
-0.73%
2025-08-18 $116,227
2025-08-22 $116,936
4
+0.31%
2025-07-31 $115,764
2025-08-04 $115,055
4
-0.91%
2025-06-20 $103,298
2025-06-23 $105,334
3
+1.67%
2025-06-05 $101,509
2025-06-07 $105,552
2
+3.67%
2025-05-29 $105,590
2025-06-01 $105,643
3
-0.25%
2025-02-24 $91,553
2025-03-01 $86,065
5
-6.28%
2025-02-02 $97,701
2025-02-10 $97,431
8
-0.58%
2025-01-28 $101,336
2025-01-29 $103,733
1
+2.06%
2024-12-19 $97,462
2024-12-24 $98,664
5
+0.93%
2024-11-25 $93,010
2024-11-27 $95,863
2
+2.76%
2024-11-04 $67,850
2024-11-05 $69,372
1
+1.94%
2024-07-31 $64,628
2024-08-08 $61,686
8
-4.84%
2024-06-18 $65,175
2024-06-27 $61,706
9
-5.61%
2024-06-11 $67,314
2024-06-17 $66,504
6
-1.50%
2024-05-01 $58,365
2024-05-03 $62,882
2
+7.42%
2024-04-28 $63,119
2024-04-29 $63,866
1
+0.88%
2024-04-13 $63,925
2024-04-19 $63,818
6
-0.47%
2024-04-02 $65,464
2024-04-04 $68,488
2
+4.31%
2024-03-16 $65,301
2024-03-20 $67,841
4
+3.58%
2024-02-23 $50,744
2024-02-24 $51,568
1
+1.32%
2024-01-22 $39,568
2024-01-26 $41,824
4
+5.38%
2024-01-12 $42,783
2024-01-16 $43,138
4
+0.53%
2023-12-11 $41,253
2023-12-13 $42,869
2
+3.60%
2023-11-14 $35,551
2023-11-15 $37,858
1
+6.17%
2023-08-16 $28,731
2023-08-23 $26,433
7
-8.27%
2023-07-18 $29,859
2023-07-23 $30,084
5
+0.45%
2023-07-06 $29,895
2023-07-10 $30,412
4
+1.42%
2023-06-14 $25,129
2023-06-16 $26,345
2
+4.53%
2023-06-05 $25,728
2023-06-06 $27,230
1
+5.52%
2023-05-08 $27,669
2023-05-15 $27,162
7
-2.13%
2023-05-01 $28,068
2023-05-03 $29,026
2
+3.10%
2023-04-21 $27,263
2023-04-25 $28,301
4
+3.50%
2023-04-17 $29,430
2023-04-18 $30,380
1
+2.92%
2023-03-03 $22,354
2023-03-12 $21,997
9
-1.89%
2023-02-24 $23,185
2023-02-27 $23,492
3
+1.02%
2023-02-09 $21,796
2023-02-13 $21,774
4
-0.40%
2023-02-05 $22,933
2023-02-07 $23,240
2
+1.04%
2021-12-09 $47,546
2021-12-11 $49,390
2
+3.57%
2021-12-03 $53,601
2021-12-08 $50,471
5
-6.12%
2021-11-16 $60,059
2021-11-20 $59,708
4
-0.88%
2021-05-12 $49,631
2021-05-24 $38,796
12
-22.07%
2021-04-18 $56,150
2021-04-26 $54,001
8
-4.11%
2021-03-22 $54,083
2021-03-26 $55,026
4
+1.44%
2021-02-23 $48,891
2021-03-01 $49,587
6
+1.12%
2021-01-27 $30,366
2021-01-28 $33,365
1
+9.55%
2021-01-21 $30,850
2021-01-25 $32,254
4
+4.24%
2021-01-12 $34,051
2021-01-13 $37,371
1
+9.42%
2020-10-03 $10,542
2020-10-04 $10,667
1
+0.88%
2020-09-21 $10,417
2020-09-24 $10,736
3
+2.75%
2020-09-03 $10,141
2020-09-07 $10,373
4
+1.99%
2020-07-16 $9,134
2020-07-19 $9,209
3
+0.52%
2020-06-27 $9,012
2020-06-29 $9,193
2
+1.70%
2020-05-21 $9,069
2020-05-27 $9,204
6
+1.19%
2020-05-11 $8,562
2020-05-13 $9,309
2
+8.41%
2020-02-26 $8,785
2020-03-02 $8,915
5
+1.18%
2020-02-17 $9,706
2020-02-18 $10,165
1
+4.41%
2019-09-21 $9,986
2019-09-30 $8,289
9
-17.24%
2019-09-17 $10,188
2019-09-19 $10,244
2
+0.25%
2019-09-10 $10,098
2019-09-12 $10,415
2
+2.83%
2019-08-29 $9,498
2019-09-01 $9,725
3
+2.08%
2019-08-13 $10,893
2019-08-18 $10,307
5
-5.66%
2019-07-23 $9,865
2019-07-31 $10,081
8
+1.88%
2019-07-14 $10,174
2019-07-18 $10,627
4
+4.14%
2019-06-04 $7,687
2019-06-07 $7,981
3
+3.51%
Pine Script: RSI(2) as a TradingView strategy
Paste into the Pine Editor on a BINANCE:BTCUSDT daily chart and open the Strategy Tester; it fills on the signal candle's close like the test.
//@version=6
strategy("DanioX BTC: Connors RSI(2) dip buy", overlay = true, initial_capital = 1000,
default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100,
commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, commission_value = 0.1, process_orders_on_close = true)
// daniox.com/bitcoin-analysis/most-winning · use on BINANCE:BTCUSDT, 1D. Connors & Alvarez (2008) settings.
// Buy at the close when the close is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) is below 10. Sell at the first close above the 5-day SMA.
rsiLen = input.int(2, "RSI length")
buyBelow = input.float(10, "Buy when RSI below")
sma200 = ta.sma(close, 200)
sma5 = ta.sma(close, 5)
r = ta.rsi(close, rsiLen)
var bool holding = false
buySig = not holding and close > sma200 and r < buyBelow
sellSig = holding and close > sma5
if buySig
holding := true
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
alert("BTC RSI(2) dip above the 200-day SMA: buy at this close", alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
if sellSig
holding := false
strategy.close("Long")
alert("BTC closed above its 5-day SMA: sell the RSI(2) trade", alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
plot(sma200, "200-day SMA", color.aqua, 2)
plot(sma5, "5-day SMA", color.new(color.orange, 30), 1)
plotshape(buySig, "Buy", shape.triangleup, location.belowbar, color.lime, size = size.small)
plotshape(sellSig, "Sell", shape.triangledown, location.abovebar, color.red, size = size.small)
Why the most winning rule is not the most profitable
A dip-buying rule sells the first bounce, so most trades end small and green: RSI(2) won 72.5% of its trades with a median of +1.32%. A trend rule does the opposite: it loses small many times and wins huge a few times. On Bitcoin, the huge wins are where the money is: the best trigger's 7 trades include moves of several hundred percent, which is why it made $24.71 per $1 while RSI(2) made $1.53.
How the test was done
Four rules from published sources, each with its published settings and the authors' own variants as neighbours; nothing was tuned. Turn-of-month uses the published stock schedule (the BTC version's exact days are behind a paywall).
Long-only spot, decided and filled on the daily close, 0.1% fee + 0.05% slippage on every buy and sell. Binance BTC/USDT 2018-03-25 to 2026-10-20; Coin Metrics closes 2012–2017; ETH; 8 coins never used in any DanioX test (from their Binance listing).
Nine checks written before the run, including at least 60% of trades won. Script: signals/bot/btc_trigger_round6.py. Academic work is mixed on Bitcoin trading rules (Hudson & Urquhart 2019 found no out-of-sample predictability for Bitcoin itself), so treat any backtest with care.
Frequently asked questions
What is the most winning Bitcoin trigger you found?+
Connors RSI(2): buy at the daily close when BTC is above its 200-day SMA and the 2-day RSI is below 10, sell at the first close above the 5-day SMA. From 2018-03-25 to 2026-10-20 it won 72.5% of 69 trades on Binance BTC/USDT after costs, 67.9% in 2012-2017 and 67.2% on ETH. Each win is small (average trade +0.74%), so $1 became only $1.53.
Is it also the most profitable?+
No. It is in BTC only 11% of the time and the average trade is small, so it made $1.53 per $1 since 2018 while holding made $9.8. The trigger that is both winning and very profitable is the best trigger on the next tab: 71.4% of 7 trades won and $1 became $24.71.
Which published rule made the most money?+
Hash Ribbons (buy when miners stop capitulating and price momentum turns up, held a year): $1 became $15.96 with 66.7% of 6 trades won, but its worst drawdown was -74.1%, about the same as holding, and it can only be tested on Bitcoin.
Does the turn-of-the-month effect work on Bitcoin?+
Not well enough here. Buying 5 days before month end and selling on the 3rd won 59.2% of 103 trades, but the average trade after costs was -0.22% in 2023-2026 and it lost in 3 years.
Is this financial advice?+
No. These are historical tests of published rules with their published settings, after 0.15% costs a side. A high win rate does not mean a high profit, and past results do not guarantee future ones. Spot only, no leverage.