What the cycles show
Every completed cycle followed the same order: halving, a top 371 to 546 days later, then a fall of 76.7% to 84.5% that bottomed about a year after the top. The latest cycle kept the timing (top 534 days after the halving) and so far fell 53.1%, the smallest crash yet.
Four cycles are a tiny sample, and each was shaped by different money (2013 Mt. Gox, 2017 ICOs, 2021 leverage, 2024 spot ETFs). Use the pattern as context for the setup checklist, not as a timer. More on this in the four-year cycle guide and the Pi Cycle Top indicator.