BTC analysis · macro tops & bottoms · next bottom & top predicted
Bitcoin Tops and Bottoms: Which Indicators Called Them, and Where BTC Is Now
Bitcoin always gets over-extended at the top and washed out at the bottom. We scored the indicators traders use for that (MVRV, the Mayer Multiple, the Pi Cycle Top, the 2-year MA and the 200-week SMA, at their published levels) on every cycle since 2011, predicted the next bottom and top from the cycles, tested whether selling and rebuying on them beats the 3% band trigger, and read them again every day.
> cycle_gauge · daily close 2026-10-23 · BTC $80,924 · live from Coin Metrics
No top signal. 1 bottom signal on: price is in a zone where past cycles bottomed. Past lows came days to months later; the turn back up is the rebuy cue.
Macro top signals
MVRV
top ≥ 3.5 · 134% to go
1.50
○ off
Mayer Multiple
top ≥ 2.4 · price $80,924 / 200-day $72,849
1.11
○ off
Pi Cycle Top
cross at 100% · 111-day SMA as % of 2× the 350-day
48%
○ off
2-Year MA multiple
top ≥ 5× · 2-year SMA $89,261
0.91×
○ off
Last top turn-back signal: 2021-03-20
Macro bottom signals
MVRV
bottom ≤ 1 · 33% above
1.50
○ off
200-week SMA
bottom ≤ 0% · line at $66,983
+20.8%
○ off
2-Year MA
bottom ≤ 0% · line at $89,261
-9.3%
● SIGNAL ON
Last bottom turn-back signal: 2026-08-17
Local: RSI(14) 44.8 · no local extreme
Best trigger: IN since 2026-08-20, sell below $70,711 once the 200-day SMA falls→
Live chart: price, signal levels and the predicted next bottom and top
The lines are the published levels drawn as prices: under the green ones is a bottom zone, over the red ones a top zone. Hollow markers are the first day an indicator entered its zone, filled ones the day it turned back out (the exit or rebuy cue); amber labels are the real cycle tops and lows; the boxes are the predicted next bottom and top. The last point is the live Binance price. Zoom down to single days or out to 2030.
○ connecting…BTC $82,899MVRV 1.54weekly view · loading every daily close…
|time|price1 Jan 2025 – 30 Sept 2030
25 Oct 2026 · BTC $82,899 · MVRV 1.54 · 200-week SMA $66,843 (+24.0%) · Realised price $53,900 (+53.8%) no macro zone
drag to pan · drag the price scale to zoom the price · pinch, ctrl + scroll or ＋/－ to zoom · double-click resets▽ top zone entered · ▼ turned back△ bottom zone entered · ▲ turned backreal cycle top / low▣ predicted windows
Prediction: the next bottom and the next top
The same four-year clock as the next bull outlook, with the bottom price from three methods written down before the run and the whole procedure replayed at the same point of the 2018 and 2022 bears. The call is re-made every day on the lowest close since the top.
> next_extreme · 2026-10-23 · ONE MORE LEG DOWN
One more leg down expected: the cycle low is due by 16 Nov 2026 at $44k–$54k (central $50k), -33% to -45% from today.
Next: the bear-market low
Window
5 Oct 2026 – 16 Nov 2026 24 days left
Zone (3 methods)
$44,116 – $54,104 central $49,801
Low so far
$58,525 30 Jun 2026 · -53.1% from the top
Wrong if
no close under $58,525 by 16 Nov 2026: the low is in, above the zone
200-week zone$44k–$67k · $61k
Past lows sat 34% under to 0.4% over the 200-week SMA; same distances from today's line
Realised-price zone$44k–$54k · $50k
MVRV at the low rose each cycle (0.42, 0.56, 0.69, 0.75); next step × the realised price (what holders paid)
Shrinking crash$30k–$44k · $39k
Each crash from top to low was shallower than the one before (in log terms); same steps from the $124,824 top
Then: the next cycle top
Halving
~12 Apr 2028
New high above $125k
Feb 2028 – Nov 2028
Top window
Apr 2029 – Oct 2029 central 23 Sept 2029
Top price
$224k – $276k central $238k
Cut by past misses
$138k – $190k (overshot +72%, +25%)
Price that would switch a signal on today
Mayer Multiple 2.4 (top)$174,839 +116%
MVRV 3.5 (top)$189,225 +134%
2-year MA ×5 (top)$446,305 +452%
2-year MA (bottom)$89,261 +10%
200-week SMA (bottom)$66,983 -17%
Realised price, MVRV 1 (bottom)$54,064 -33%
Pi Cycle Top (top)48% of the cross
The lines climb as the averages rise, so the top levels will be higher by 2029. The Pi Cycle cross is the one to watch.
Same rules, same point of the bear
Low so far then
Call
Zone
Real low
Lower still
Zone central off by
Date in window
7 Dec 2018
$3,373
zone reached
$3,509
$3,185 15 Dec 2018
-5.6% 8 d later
+10.2%
yes
2 Nov 2022
$18,507
zone reached
$17,857–$19,400
$15,758 9 Nov 2022
-14.9% 7 d later
+18.2%
yes
Both replays said "zone reached" a week before the real low, and both lows came lower than the zone: the 2018 zone was a single price (only two finished cycles to learn from), and in 2022 only the shrinking-crash method had the FTX low inside. The timing was right both times. Now the zone sits under the low so far, so the rules lean to one more leg down. The two halves of the study disagree, though: the outlook's path (past bears replayed from this point) stays at $75k–$85k at the end of 2026, because past lows came close to this date. This cycle's bear has been the shallowest on record (-53.1%), the case these rules have never been tested on. A close under $58,525, or 16 Nov 2026 without one, settles it.
How each indicator did
A signal counts as a hit if it came within 120 days of a real cycle top at no less than 70% of the top price (or, for bottoms, within 120 days of a low at no more than 1.5× the low). Every first entry into the zone is listed.
TOP · MVRV ≥ 3.5 Market value at least 3.5× the realised value (what holders paid)
0 hits, 6 early or false · caught none
Signal
Price
Nearest real top
Days to it
Price vs it
Verdict
2013-03-09
$46.89
2013-12-04 $1,135
270 days later
-95.9%
early
2013-11-07
$290.12
2013-12-04 $1,135
27 days later
-74.4%
early
2017-06-06
$2,871
2017-12-16 $19,641
193 days later
-85.4%
early
2017-12-01
$10,809
2017-12-16 $19,641
15 days later
-45.0%
early
2021-01-06
$36,643
2021-11-08 $67,542
306 days later
-45.7%
early
TOP · Mayer Multiple ≥ 2.4 Price at least 2.4× its 200-day SMA
0 hits, 7 early or false · caught none
Signal
Price
Nearest real top
Days to it
Price vs it
Verdict
2011-02-02
$0.73
2011-06-08 $29.03
126 days later
-97.5%
early
2013-03-04
$36.38
2013-12-04 $1,135
275 days later
-96.8%
early
2013-11-07
$290.12
2013-12-04 $1,135
27 days later
-74.4%
early
2017-06-06
$2,871
2017-12-16 $19,641
193 days later
-85.4%
early
2017-11-27
$9,731
2017-12-16 $19,641
19 days later
-50.5%
early
2019-06-26
$12,863
2017-12-16 $19,641
557 days before
-34.5%
late / false
2021-01-03
$33,278
2021-11-08 $67,542
309 days later
-50.7%
early
TOP · Pi Cycle Top 111-day SMA crosses above 2× the 350-day SMA
2 hits, 2 early or false · caught 2013-12-04, 2017-12-16
Signal
Price
Nearest real top
Days to it
Price vs it
Verdict
2013-04-06
$143.08
2013-12-04 $1,135
242 days later
-87.4%
early
2013-12-05
$1,027
2013-12-04 $1,135
1 days before
-9.5%
hit
2017-12-16
$19,641
2017-12-16 $19,641
same day
0.0%
hit
2021-04-12
$59,906
2021-11-08 $67,542
210 days later
-11.3%
early
TOP · 2-Year MA ×5 Price at least 5× its 730-day SMA
0 hits, 4 early or false · caught none
Signal
Price
Nearest real top
Days to it
Price vs it
Verdict
2013-03-09
$46.89
2013-12-04 $1,135
270 days later
-95.9%
early
2013-10-23
$204.60
2013-12-04 $1,135
42 days later
-82.0%
early
2017-09-01
$4,918
2017-12-16 $19,641
106 days later
-75.0%
early
2017-11-02
$7,044
2017-12-16 $19,641
44 days later
-64.1%
early
BOTTOM · MVRV ≤ 1 Market value at or under the realised value
0 hits, 5 early or false · caught none
Signal
Price
Nearest real low
Days to it
Price vs it
Verdict
2011-09-09
$4.99
2011-11-18 $2.11
70 days later
+136.3%
early
2014-10-04
$328.83
2015-01-14 $175.64
102 days later
+87.2%
early
2018-11-19
$4,792
2018-12-15 $3,185
26 days later
+50.5%
early
2020-03-12
$4,959
2018-12-15 $3,185
453 days before
+55.7%
late / false
2022-06-13
$22,316
2022-11-09 $15,758
149 days later
+41.6%
early
BOTTOM · 200-week SMA Price at or under its 200-week (1,400-day) SMA
2 hits, 4 early or false · caught 2015-01-14, 2026-06-30
Signal
Price
Nearest real low
Days to it
Price vs it
Verdict
2015-01-14
$175.64
2015-01-14 $175.64
same day
0.0%
hit
2015-08-18
$217.89
2015-01-14 $175.64
216 days before
+24.1%
late / false
2020-03-12
$4,959
2018-12-15 $3,185
453 days before
+55.7%
late / false
2022-06-14
$22,073
2022-11-09 $15,758
148 days later
+40.1%
early
2023-06-05
$25,786
2022-11-09 $15,758
208 days before
+63.6%
late / false
2026-06-05
$60,908
2026-06-30 $58,525
25 days later
+4.1%
hit
BOTTOM · Under the 2-year MA Price at or under its 730-day SMA
0 hits, 6 early or false · caught none
Signal
Price
Nearest real low
Days to it
Price vs it
Verdict
2014-11-01
$324.37
2015-01-14 $175.64
74 days later
+84.7%
early
2018-11-15
$5,539
2018-12-15 $3,185
30 days later
+73.9%
early
2019-10-23
$7,458
2018-12-15 $3,185
312 days before
+134.2%
late / false
2020-03-12
$4,959
2018-12-15 $3,185
453 days before
+55.7%
late / false
2022-05-08
$34,059
2022-11-09 $15,758
185 days later
+116.1%
early
2026-01-29
$84,520
2026-06-30 $58,525
152 days later
+44.4%
early
Does selling the tops and rebuying the bottoms make more money?
Each overlay was added to the 3% band trigger (spot, daily closes, 0.15% a side). Cells show what $1 became and the worst drawdown. An overlay replaces the band only if it has a better return per unit of drawdown in all three tests: BTC 2012–2017, BTC 2018–today and ETH. The "turn back" versions were a second look, run after the first ones fired too early.
Strategy
BTC 2012–17
BTC 2018–today
BTC 2012–today
Return / drawdown
ETH 2019–today
Tests beaten
3% band trigger (headline)
×1,440 -73.1%
×7.73 -62.7%
×10,774 -73.1%
1.19
×7.64 -73.3%
baseline
+ macro exit (zone entry)
×67.76 -50.5%
×21.50 -34.1%
×1,457 -50.5%
1.26
×4.00 -73.3%
1 of 3
+ macro rebuy (zone entry)
×1,987 -82.5%
×11.12 -78.3%
×21,395 -82.5%
1.16
×15.33 -70%
1 of 3
+ both (zone entry)
×93.54 -58.9%
×30.93 -68.3%
×2,893 -68.3%
1.04
×8.03 -68.4%
2 of 3
+ macro exit (turn back)smallest drawdown
×406 -50.5%
×17.74 -34.1%
×7,201 -50.5%
1.63
×4.04 -73.3%
2 of 3
+ macro rebuy (turn back)most money since 2012
×1,636 -83.8%
×15.72 -64.4%
×24,904 -83.8%
1.17
×14.70 -71.4%
2 of 3
+ both (turn back)most money since 2018
×461 -65.5%
×36.08 -52.1%
×16,644 -65.5%
1.42
×7.76 -68.4%
2 of 3
Buy and hold: BTC 2012–today ×15,657 (worst -84.5%), 2018–today ×6.16; ETH 2019–today ×8.32. Coin Metrics daily closes, so 2018 numbers start on 1 January (the band page starts its Binance test on 25 March).
The honest reading: macro exits that wait for the turn back cut the worst drawdown a lot (-73.1% → -50.5%) and won big in 2018–today (×17.74 vs ×7.73), but they sold early in 2013 and made less on ETH. Turn-back bottom buys made the most money since 2012 (×24,904 vs ×10,774) by getting in before the trend turned, at the price of sitting through the last leg down (worst drawdown -83.8%). With only four cycles, none of them beat the band in every test, so the band stays the trigger and these are the warning lights around it.
Local tops and bottoms: what an RSI extreme really meant
Daily signal since 2012
Times
Higher 30 days later
Avg next 30 days
In an uptrend / downtrend
Any day
5,377
57.4%
+9.2%
—
Stretch: RSI ≥ 75, close above the upper band
52
78.8%
+28.4%
+31.6% (47) / -1.1% (5)
Washout: RSI ≤ 25, close below the lower band
22
50%
+3.3%
+9.3% (4) / +1.9% (18)
Uptrend = price above its 200-day SMA on the signal day. Last stretch days: 2024-02-27, 2024-11-10, 2025-05-08, 2025-07-14, 2026-08-20. Last washouts: 2022-11-09, 2023-08-17, 2025-11-21, 2026-02-01, 2026-06-02.
A stretched daily chart in an uptrend was a sign of strength, not a top: the next 30 days averaged +31.6% against +9.2% for any day. A washout was no better than a random day (+3.3%, 50% higher). Local extremes are not reliable exit or entry points on BTC; the trend and the macro zones are.
The cheat sheet
Macro exit: when to get out
Pi Cycle Top cross: the sharpest top signal (exact in 2013 and 2017, the April 2021 high).
MVRV turning back under 3.5, or the Mayer Multiple back under 2.4, after being above: the over-extension is ending.
Entering the zone (MVRV ≥ 3.5, Mayer ≥ 2.4, 5× the 2-year MA) is a warning, not a sell: the 2013 and 2017 tops came 2–6 weeks after the last zone entry, 80–450% higher.
None of these fired in 2024–2026: the band trigger's sell is the backstop.
Macro rebuy: when to get back in
Price at or under the 200-week SMA: the best bottom zone (exact low in 2015, 4% from the 2026 low).
Price closing back above the 200-week SMA, the 2-year MA, or MVRV back above 1: the first rebuy cue, months before the band trigger.
Expect one more leg down after the first bottom signal: 2018 and 2022 fell another 29–34% after MVRV first dropped under 1.
Confirmation: the band trigger's buy (a close 3% above the 200-day SMA).
How the test was done
Coin Metrics daily closes and MVRV for BTC (2010–today) and ETH (2015–today). Published thresholds only: nothing was tuned on the data.
Real cycle tops and lows come from the halving-cycle table. A signal episode starts on the first day in a zone after 60 days outside it.
The overlays trade spot BTC on daily closes with 0.15% costs a side on top of the 3% band trigger. The zone-entry version was written first; the turn-back version was a second look after the first fired too early, and is labelled so.
The next-bottom zone and call come from signals/bot/btc_next_extreme.py (methods written before the run, replayed at the outlook's 2018 and 2022 cutoffs, nothing changed after); the timing and the next top come from the outlook.
Four or five cycles is a tiny sample: one more cycle can change any of these scores. MVRV depends on Coin Metrics' realised-value data. Script: signals/bot/btc_cycle_signals.py.
Frequently asked questions
When and where is the next Bitcoin bottom?+
By the four-year clock the bear-market low is due between 5 Oct 2026 and 16 Nov 2026. Three methods (the 200-week SMA zone, the realised-price zone and the shrinking crash) put it at $44k–$54k, central $50k. The lowest close since the October 2025 top is $58,525 (30 Jun 2026, -53.1%), above that zone. If BTC makes no lower close by 16 Nov 2026, the timing rule calls the low in at $58,525. The same rules run at the same point in 2018 and 2022 were too high: the real lows came -5.6% and -14.9% under the low at the time, 8 and 7 days later.
When and where is the next Bitcoin top?+
After the halving around 12 Apr 2028, a new all-time high above $124,824 is due between Feb 2028 and Nov 2028 and the cycle top between Apr 2029 and Oct 2029 (central 23 Sept 2029), at $224k–$276k by our three top methods. Those methods overshot the last two tops by +72% and +25%; cut by those errors the central figure is $138k–$190k. The Pi Cycle Top cross is the signal to watch: it was the only one that hit past tops.
Which indicator called Bitcoin's tops best?+
The Pi Cycle Top (the 111-day average crossing above twice the 350-day average). It fired one day after the December 2013 top and on the exact day of the December 2017 top. In 2021 it fired on 2021-04-12, at the April high, not the November one, and it has not fired in the 2024-2026 cycle. MVRV above 3.5, the Mayer Multiple above 2.4 and 5× the 2-year average all fired weeks to months before the 2013 and 2017 tops, far below the top price, and never in 2024-2026.
Which indicator called Bitcoin's bottoms best?+
The 200-week moving average. Price touched it on the exact day of the January 2015 low and came within 4% of the June 2026 low (signal 2026-06-05). In 2018 the low stopped 0.4% above it, and in 2022 price broke 34% under it, so it is a zone, not a floor. MVRV under 1 and price under the 2-year average fired weeks to months before each low, 40-140% above it.
Does selling at macro top signals and buying at macro bottom signals make more money?+
Sometimes, not always. Added to the 3% band trigger, waiting for the signal to turn back (MVRV back under 3.5, Mayer back under 2.4, or the Pi Cycle cross) cut the worst drawdown since 2012 from -73.1% to -50.5% and lifted 2018-today from ×7.73 to ×17.74, but it made less on ETH. Adding turn-back bottom buys as well made the most since 2018 (×36.08) but less in 2012-2017. No version beat the plain band trigger in all three tests set before the run, so the band stays the headline and these signals are shown as a guide.
Is an overbought RSI a local top on Bitcoin?+
Not in an uptrend. Over 52 times since 2012 that daily RSI(14) reached 75 with price above its upper Bollinger band, BTC was higher 30 days later 78.8% of the time and gained +28.4% on average, against +9.2% for all days. In an uptrend the average was +31.6%. Selling local strength would have cost money.
Is this financial advice?+
No. There have been only four or five cycles, so every indicator here has a handful of signals; past cycles do not have to repeat. Spot only, no leverage.