BTC analysis · next bull & price outlook · from the halving cycles
Bitcoin Price Outlook: How High BTC Can Go, and When the Next Bull Run Peaks
How high can Bitcoin go, by when, and when does the next bull market run? We put four halving cycles through three ways of sizing the next top and the cycle clock for its timing, wrote the rules down first, and then ran the same procedure at the same point of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets to see how wrong it would have been. Context for the best trigger, not a promise.
The short answer · study to 20 Oct 2026
Next top $224k–$276k around Sept 2029; the bull runs from the 2026 low to then
How high
$224k–$276k, central $238k: 187% above the $82,899 close.
If it overshoots like the replays did (+72%, +25%): $138k–$190k.
When
Top between Apr 2029 and Oct 2029, central 23 Sept 2029. New all-time high first, Feb 2028–Nov 2028.
The 2022 replay put the 2025 top 9 days from its central date.
Next bull period
Bear low due 5 Oct 2026–16 Nov 2026; halving ~13 Apr 2028; bull to Sept 2029, then a bear into Sept 2030–Nov 2030.
Low so far $58,525 (30 Jun 2026). Under it, the floor zone is $44k–$67k.
Next halving
13 Apr 2028
77,080 blocks · 538 days · live block height
Bear-low window
Oct 2026–Nov 2026
low so far $58,525
New all-time high
Feb 2028–Nov 2028
above $124,824
Cycle top
Apr 2029–Oct 2029
$224k–$276k, central $238k
━ BTC weekly close (log)▒ projected range · ╌ central path▮ bear-low window▮ new-high window▮ top windowbars at the top: shrinking bull · shrinking gain · power-law ceiling
> bull_tracker · daily close 2026-10-23 · BTC $80,924 · 3 of 5 live
●
Holds the $58,525 low of 30 Jun 2026
a close under it means the bear market is not over
●
Above the 200-week SMA ($66,983)
where past bear markets found their floor
●
Best trigger IN
3% band on the 200-day SMA, our tested entry rule
○
Above the 2-year MA ($89,261)
past cycles crossed it on the way out of the bear
○
New all-time high above $124,824
the main leg of the bull, expected Feb 2028–Nov 2028
Read top to bottom: each line is a step past cycles took on the way from the bear low to the next top. The last one is the start of the main leg.
Where BTC could be, date by date
The three finished cycles replayed from the same point of their halving cycle (time stretched so the halvings line up), each sized to the low, central and high top: nine paths. The range is the lowest to the highest of the nine; central is the middle path at the central size. It is where the replays land, not a confidence band.
When
Date
Low
Central
High
Central vs today
End of 2026
31 Dec 2026
$75k
$80k
$85k
-3%
Mid 2027
30 Jun 2027
$83k
$105k
$138k
+27%
End of 2027
31 Dec 2027
$91k
$119k
$139k
+44%
Next halving
12 Apr 2028
$102k
$116k
$177k
+40%
Mid 2028
30 Jun 2028
$99k
$121k
$164k
+46%
End of 2028
31 Dec 2028
$110k
$183k
$236k
+121%
Mid 2029
30 Jun 2029
$151k
$189k
$251k
+128%
Projected top (central date)
23 Sept 2029
$208k
$230k
$268k
+178%
End of 2029
31 Dec 2029
$182k
$195k
$223k
+135%
Replayed cycles and the point they start from: 2012 halving cycle from 7 Mar 2015 · 2016 halving cycle from 7 Dec 2018 · 2020 halving cycle from 2 Nov 2022. In the 2022 replay only 2 of 9 dates landed inside the range: the timing of the top held, the path to it did not.
How high: three ways to size the next top
Each Bitcoin cycle has climbed less than the one before. The three methods measure that shrinking in different ways and give a low, a central and a high figure from the smallest, middle and largest shrink seen so far. The headline takes the middle method on each figure.
Method
Next top
Said in Dec 2018 (real $68k)
Said in Nov 2022 (real $125k)
Shrinking bull
Each bull's climb from the bear low to the top (in log terms) has been a fraction of the one before; apply the same fractions to this cycle's low
$224k–$276k central $238k
$116k ✗ +72%
$134k–$183k ✗ +25%
Shrinking top-to-top gain
Each top's gain over the previous top has shrunk the same way; apply it to the $124,824 top of October 2025
$163k–$201k central $169k
$180k ✗ +167%
$115k–$176k ✓ +14%
Power-law ceiling
Fit a straight line to log price against log time since 2009; each top sat less far above the line than the one before
$352k–$404k central $388k
$90k–$109k ✗ +46%
$205k–$275k ✗ +100%
Headline (middle of the three)
$224k–$276k central $238k
$116k ✗ +72%
$134k–$183k ✗ +25%
Every method has run too high at the last two tops: diminishing returns have come faster than any of them assumed. In December 2018 the shrink ratios rested on one or two earlier cycles, and all three missed the 2021 top (the closest, the power-law ceiling, by +46%). In November 2022 the shrinking top-to-top gain had the 2025 top inside its range (+14% on its central figure); the other two were too high. That is why the page also shows $138k–$190k: the headline cut by the replays' own errors. We did not change the methods after seeing the replays. Today the power-law ceiling ($352k–$404k) is the outlier, and it was the furthest off in 2022.
When: the cycle clock
Timing has been more regular than size. Past tops came 371, 525, 546, 534 days after their halving; bear-market lows came 406, 364, 366 days after the top and 542, 513, 528 days before the next halving. Price first closed above the previous cycle's top 83 days after, 229 days after, 203 days after, 47 days before the halving (the 2024 one came early, on the spot ETF buying).
Bear-market low: 5 Oct 2026–16 Nov 2026 counted from the 6 Oct 2025 top, 18 Oct 2026–16 Nov 2026 counted back from the halving. We are inside it now. The $58,525 close of 30 Jun 2026 came 267 days after the top, earlier than any past low, and price is +42% above it. It stands unless a close breaks it.
Next halving: block 1,050,000, about 12 Apr 2028 at the last year's 10.04 minutes a block (1 Apr 2028 at the year before's pace).
New all-time high: 25 Feb 2028–27 Nov 2028, central 2 Sept 2028.
Cycle top: 18 Apr 2029–10 Oct 2029, central 23 Sept 2029. The early edge comes from 2013's quick top; the last three came 525, 546, 534 days after the halving, which points to the late end.
After the top: the next bear market would bottom around Sept 2030–Nov 2030.
How wrong this would have been: the 2018 and 2022 replays
We ran the same code with only the prices known on 7 Dec 2018 and on 2 Nov 2022: the same point of the 2016 and 2020 halving cycles as today is of the 2024 one. The real next halving date was used; everything else came from data before the cutoff.
Run on
Top price · real · error
Top window · real
Low inside both windows
Dates inside range
7 Dec 2018
$116k vs $68k✗+72%
May 2021–Oct 2021 vs 8 Nov 2021✗98 d late
✗✗15 Dec 2018
0 of 9
2 Nov 2022
$134k–$183k vs $125k✗+25%
Apr 2025–Oct 2025 vs 6 Oct 2025✓9 d late
✓✓9 Nov 2022
2 of 9
The page as it would have looked on 2 Nov 2022: white = known then, amber = what happened, green = the projection. The top came inside the window, 9 days after its central date, at $125k, under the $134k–$183k range; the 2024 ETF rally ran far ahead of the path.
The pattern across both replays: the bear-market low and the top's timing were close in 2022, the size of the top was too high both times, and the path between them was mostly outside the range. So read this page as "when" first, "how high" second, and the date-by-date table as a rough guide.
What would change the outlook
A daily close under $58,525: the bear market is not over. The floor zone of past cycles is $44k–$67k, and a lower low cuts the shrinking-bull figure by the same percentage.
No new all-time high by 27 Nov 2028: the cycle is running weaker than all four before it; expect the low end, or the shrinking-gain range.
A new high well before the window, as in 2024 with the ETFs: that time the top still came 534 days after the halving, so the top window stays.
When the best trigger is OUT, the tested rule is in cash whatever this outlook says. The tops & bottoms gauge shows when the market is over-extended near a top.
How it was done
Coin Metrics daily closes since 2012 (2010 for the fits), the cycle table of the halving cycles tab, and mempool.space block heights for the halving date. Script btc_outlook.py; its rules were written down before the first run and not changed after the replays. Four finished cycles are a tiny sample, each driven by different money (2013 Mt. Gox, 2017 ICOs, 2021 leverage, 2024 spot ETFs), so treat every number here as a range around a guess. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
How high can Bitcoin go in the next bull run?+
Our three methods put the next cycle top between $163k and $404k; their middle is $224k–$276k, about $238k. The same procedure run at the same point of the last two cycles overshot the real top by +72% and +25%; corrected by those errors the central figure is $138k–$190k. The shrinking top-to-top method ($163k–$201k) was the only one with the 2025 top inside its range.
When is the next Bitcoin bull run?+
If the four-year rhythm holds, the bear-market low is due between 5 Oct 2026 and 16 Nov 2026 (the 30 Jun 2026 close of $58,525 is the low so far), the halving comes around 12 Apr 2028, a new all-time high above $124,824 between Feb 2028 and Nov 2028, and the cycle top between Apr 2029 and Oct 2029 (central 23 Sept 2029). The bull period is from the low to that top, roughly three years; the fast part usually starts with the new high.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?+
At block 1,050,000. At the last 365 days' pace of 10.04 minutes a block that is about 12 Apr 2028; at the year before's 9.84 minutes, 1 Apr 2028. The block reward drops from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC.
Has Bitcoin bottomed?+
Maybe. The low so far is $58,525 on 30 Jun 2026, 267 days after the top: the shortest bear market yet. Past lows came 364–406 days after the top, which puts the usual window at 5 Oct 2026–16 Nov 2026. If price closes under $58,525, the zone where past lows formed is $44k–$67k (the 200-week SMA, -8.2%, +0.4%, -34.0%).
Can I trade on this outlook?+
Not on its own. It is a projection from four cycles, and the price-by-date part was the weakest when we replayed it on 2022. Use it for context; the entries and exits come from the best trigger, which was tested on every trade. Not financial advice.