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Stocks · economy · US rates, inflation, jobs, growth, credit
The US numbers that move stock prices, from the Federal Reserve's FRED database: Treasury yields, the Fed funds rate, inflation, unemployment, growth and credit spreads.
US real GDP growth (annualised, quarter)
2.20%
2026-04-01 · -1.80 pts in a year · FRED A191RL1Q225SBEA ↗
Each card shows the latest value, its change over a year and a five-year line. Inflation is the consumer price index's change on a year earlier, GDP growth the latest quarter at an annual rate. Read them with the sector table: banks tend to gain when the yield curve steepens, utilities and real estate suffer when long yields rise. Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Not financial advice.
4.96% on 2026-10-22 (US Treasury constant-maturity rate from the Federal Reserve's FRED database), against 3.97% a year earlier.
When the 2-year yield is above the 10-year (a negative spread, an inverted yield curve), markets expect rate cuts, and inversions have come before most US recessions since the 1970s, usually with a lag of one to two years. A spread turning positive again after an inversion has often been the moment the slowdown arrives.
Higher yields make bonds more attractive and lower the value of future profits, which hits richly valued growth stocks most. The high-yield credit spread is the extra yield that weaker companies pay over Treasuries: when it widens fast, lenders are worried and stocks usually fall.